No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring carry trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” at 75%. Sentry risk assessments list only distant, low-probability approaches by meter-scale bodies, while historical bolide records from CNEOS show 5 kt events occur roughly once per year or less amid mostly smaller fireballs. Recent 2026 detections, including those over North America, have remained well below threshold energy levels, and refined orbital data have not identified new risks. Continuous surveillance through year-end will determine if any undetected object alters this consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
25% Chance
$312,629 Vol.
$312,629 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
25% Chance
$312,629 Vol.
$312,629 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring carry trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” at 75%. Sentry risk assessments list only distant, low-probability approaches by meter-scale bodies, while historical bolide records from CNEOS show 5 kt events occur roughly once per year or less amid mostly smaller fireballs. Recent 2026 detections, including those over North America, have remained well below threshold energy levels, and refined orbital data have not identified new risks. Continuous surveillance through year-end will determine if any undetected object alters this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$312,629Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring carry trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” at 75%. Sentry risk assessments list only distant, low-probability approaches by meter-scale bodies, while historical bolide records from CNEOS show 5 kt events occur roughly once per year or less amid mostly smaller fireballs. Recent 2026 detections, including those over North America, have remained well below threshold energy levels, and refined orbital data have not identified new risks. Continuous surveillance through year-end will determine if any undetected object alters this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$312,629Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring carry trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” at 75%. Sentry risk assessments list only distant, low-probability approaches by meter-scale bodies, while historical bolide records from CNEOS show 5 kt events occur roughly once per year or less amid mostly smaller fireballs. Recent 2026 detections, including those over North America, have remained well below threshold energy levels, and refined orbital data have not identified new risks. Continuous surveillance through year-end will determine if any undetected object alters this consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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