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Geopolitik·Markenbotschafter

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

icon for Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Geopolitik·Markenbotschafter

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

24% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
24% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States in December 2025, Lebanon in March 2026, and several Gulf states amid regional security concerns and Hezbollah-related tensions have addressed immediate diplomatic frictions. No new major incidents, official actions, or escalatory statements from key governments have emerged in the past six weeks to prompt additional removals. With the June 30 deadline approaching and ongoing diplomatic channels remaining active, traders assess limited near-term catalysts for another expulsion, aligning with the 76.5% implied probability on “No.” Scheduled regional summits and monitoring of Iran’s UN mission activities could still influence outcomes before resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,650
Enddatum
30. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States in December 2025, Lebanon in March 2026, and several Gulf states amid regional security concerns and Hezbollah-related tensions have addressed immediate diplomatic frictions. No new major incidents, official actions, or escalatory statements from key governments have emerged in the past six weeks to prompt additional removals. With the June 30 deadline approaching and ongoing diplomatic channels remaining active, traders assess limited near-term catalysts for another expulsion, aligning with the 76.5% implied probability on “No.” Scheduled regional summits and monitoring of Iran’s UN mission activities could still influence outcomes before resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,650
Enddatum
30. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 24% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 24¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 24%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Apr 30, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" liegt bei 24% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 24% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

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