Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round performance on October 4, 2026, where he captured 47.03% of valid votes ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45.16%, has driven the strong trader consensus favoring the Liberal Party senator in the October 25 runoff. Right-wing support consolidated after other conservative candidates were eliminated, aligning with historical patterns in which no first-round loser has prevailed in Brazil’s runoff since the return to democracy. Recent polling aggregates and campaign dynamics, including voter priorities on security, corruption, and economic management, have reinforced momentum for Bolsonaro, though the three-week campaign window leaves room for shifts in turnout or undecided blocs among the roughly 160 million eligible voters.