Skip to main content
icon for Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

icon for Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 48.5%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Mamadu Iaia Djaló 5.2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Herculano Armando Bequinsa 3.5%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 3.0%

Polymarket

$311,386 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 48.5%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Mamadu Iaia Djaló 5.2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Herculano Armando Bequinsa 3.5%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 3.0%

Polymarket

$311,386 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$47,728 Vol.

49%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$18,108 Vol.

5%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$15,583 Vol.

3%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$87,327 Vol.

3%

Siga Batista

$21,417 Vol.

23%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$17,896 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$17,560 Vol.

2%

José Mário Vaz

$21,417 Vol.

2%

João Bernardo Vieira

$15,098 Vol.

1%

João de Deus Mendes

$16,237 Vol.

1%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$18,882 Vol.

1%

Baciro Djá

$14,132 Vol.

<1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 48.5% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6 presidential election, reflecting his momentum as the leading challenger in the 2025 vote where he claimed victory based on partial tallies before a military coup annulled results. Siga Batista, who withdrew to endorse Dias in 2025, follows at 23.8% as a potential runoff contender in the two-round majoritarian system, while ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló languishes at 3% post-coup. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days since the junta's January election decree amid ECOWAS pressure for a swift return to constitutional order; current pricing embodies skin-in-the-game assessments of opposition strength and junta preparations, with candidate filings and campaigning ahead likely to influence odds.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$311,386
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 48.5% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6 presidential election, reflecting his momentum as the leading challenger in the 2025 vote where he claimed victory based on partial tallies before a military coup annulled results. Siga Batista, who withdrew to endorse Dias in 2025, follows at 23.8% as a potential runoff contender in the two-round majoritarian system, while ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló languishes at 3% post-coup. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days since the junta's January election decree amid ECOWAS pressure for a swift return to constitutional order; current pricing embodies skin-in-the-game assessments of opposition strength and junta preparations, with candidate filings and campaigning ahead likely to influence odds.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$311,386
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 12 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 49%, gefolgt von „Siga Batista" mit 23%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 49¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 49% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $311.4K generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 6, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 12 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 49%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 49% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Siga Batista" mit 23%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.