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Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

icon for Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 19.3%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 6.0%

Siga Batista 5.5%

Baciro Djá 2.8%

Polymarket

$336,764 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 19.3%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 6.0%

Siga Batista 5.5%

Baciro Djá 2.8%

Polymarket

$336,764 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$57,612 Vol.

19%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$90,553 Vol.

13%

Siga Batista

$24,522 Vol.

5%

Baciro Djá

$14,532 Vol.

3%

José Mário Vaz

$22,281 Vol.

3%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,714 Vol.

3%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,755 Vol.

3%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

3%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Vol.

2%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Vol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,350 Vol.

2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,236 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).**Fernando Dias da Costa leads the fragmented field at 19.8% in trader consensus for the December 6, 2026, presidential election, reflecting his strong but unconfirmed performance in the interrupted November 2025 vote.** A military coup on November 26, 2025, suspended that contest before official results, ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, and installed a transitional junta under Major-General Horta Inta-a for a one-year period. The junta later scheduled fresh general elections after declaring conditions met for credible polls. Embaló and other listed contenders trail at low single digits amid a crowded field of over a dozen candidates, many with limited national profiles or party infrastructure. Key differentiators include prior electoral support bases, alignment with major parties such as PAIGC or PRS, and positioning relative to the transitional authorities. Consolidation behind one outcome could hinge on late endorsements, military neutrality assurances, or ECOWAS-mediated stability measures in the remaining months before voting.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$336,764
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).**Fernando Dias da Costa leads the fragmented field at 19.8% in trader consensus for the December 6, 2026, presidential election, reflecting his strong but unconfirmed performance in the interrupted November 2025 vote.** A military coup on November 26, 2025, suspended that contest before official results, ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, and installed a transitional junta under Major-General Horta Inta-a for a one-year period. The junta later scheduled fresh general elections after declaring conditions met for credible polls. Embaló and other listed contenders trail at low single digits amid a crowded field of over a dozen candidates, many with limited national profiles or party infrastructure. Key differentiators include prior electoral support bases, alignment with major parties such as PAIGC or PRS, and positioning relative to the transitional authorities. Consolidation behind one outcome could hinge on late endorsements, military neutrality assurances, or ECOWAS-mediated stability measures in the remaining months before voting.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$336,764
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Platforma Reupblicana „Nô Kumpu Guiné“ bei der Wahl zur Nationalversammlung von Guinea-Bissau 2025 die meisten Sitze gewinnen?

Wird die Platforma Reupblicana „Nô Kumpu Guiné“ bei der Wahl zur Nationalversammlung von Guinea-Bissau 2025 die meisten Sitze gewinnen?

31%
Ja
icon for Wird José Maria Neves die Präsidentschaftswahl in Kap Verde gewinnen?

Wird José Maria Neves die Präsidentschaftswahl in Kap Verde gewinnen?

70%
Ja
icon for Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

83%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 12 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 19%, gefolgt von „Umaro Sissoco Embaló" mit 13%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 19¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 19% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $336.8K generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 6, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 12 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 19%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 19% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Umaro Sissoco Embaló" mit 13%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.