Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter and international models indicate variable cloudiness with light rain possible on August 31, limiting daytime heating and supporting maximum temperatures of 20–25°C in Moscow. This consensus on mild late-summer conditions—near the seasonal average of ~23°C—explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 22–24°C. Key differentiating factors include model variations in cloud thickness, which can reduce solar radiation and cap peaks near 22°C, versus clearer intervals allowing brief rises to 24°C under southwesterly flow. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these thresholds, as small shifts in precipitation timing or wind patterns can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C.