Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 29°C at 100% implied probability for Wuhan's highest temperature on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) station at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, which recorded a daily maximum of 29°C amid cloudy conditions. This aligns with pre-event forecast guidance from numerical weather prediction models showing peaks of 28–30°C, consistent with May climatology—average highs around 28°C—and the recent warming trend (26°C on May 13, 28°C on May 14). Upper-level steering patterns and moderate humidity capped intensification potential. Realistic challenges include rare CMA quality-control revisions for sensor anomalies, though preliminary station records post-12:00 UTC rarely change, solidifying the outcome as the day concludes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Wuhan on May 15?
29°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$69,355 Vol.
$69,355 Vol.
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$69,355 Vol.
$69,355 Vol.
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 1:11 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 29°C at 100% implied probability for Wuhan's highest temperature on May 15, driven by confirmed observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) station at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, which recorded a daily maximum of 29°C amid cloudy conditions. This aligns with pre-event forecast guidance from numerical weather prediction models showing peaks of 28–30°C, consistent with May climatology—average highs around 28°C—and the recent warming trend (26°C on May 13, 28°C on May 14). Upper-level steering patterns and moderate humidity capped intensification potential. Realistic challenges include rare CMA quality-control revisions for sensor anomalies, though preliminary station records post-12:00 UTC rarely change, solidifying the outcome as the day concludes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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