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icon for Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Geopolitik·Libanon

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

icon for Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Geopolitik·Libanon

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

$11,848,621 Vol.

31. Juli 2026
Polymarket

$11,848,621 Vol.

Polymarket

30. Juni

$8,451,556 Vol.

1%

31. Juli

$381,469 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent US-Iran negotiations produced a memorandum of understanding on June 14, 2026, intended to end more than 100 days of hostilities that began with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February. The interim pact includes an immediate halt to military operations across fronts, including Lebanon, the lifting of the US naval blockade, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a 60-day window for follow-on talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with a formal signing slated for June 19. Israel participated in the earlier campaign but has signaled skepticism toward the US-brokered terms and maintains independent strike options, while Iranian statements emphasize permanence only if nuclear and sanctions issues are resolved. These developments frame trader views on any near-term bilateral Israel-Iran peace accord as constrained by the indirect, fragile nature of the current ceasefire and unresolved core disputes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.

A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:

- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.

- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.

The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$11,848,621
Enddatum
31. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent US-Iran negotiations produced a memorandum of understanding on June 14, 2026, intended to end more than 100 days of hostilities that began with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February. The interim pact includes an immediate halt to military operations across fronts, including Lebanon, the lifting of the US naval blockade, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a 60-day window for follow-on talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with a formal signing slated for June 19. Israel participated in the earlier campaign but has signaled skepticism toward the US-brokered terms and maintains independent strike options, while Iranian statements emphasize permanence only if nuclear and sanctions issues are resolved. These developments frame trader views on any near-term bilateral Israel-Iran peace accord as constrained by the indirect, fragile nature of the current ceasefire and unresolved core disputes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.

A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:

- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.

- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.

The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$11,848,621
Enddatum
31. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „31. Juli" mit 6%, gefolgt von „30. Juni" mit 1%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 6¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 6% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $11.8 million generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 16, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" ist „31. Juli" mit nur 6%, dicht gefolgt von „30. Juni" mit 1%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.