Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, show strong consensus for an overnight low of 16–17 °C in Paris on August 31, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light showers that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with observed minima of 16–17 °C over the preceding three nights and the seasonal transition toward early-September climatology, where average lows fall to ~13–15 °C. Historical analogs indicate that persistent marine influence and weak high pressure typically cap minimum temperatures near 16 °C under similar synoptic patterns, explaining the heavy market weighting on the 16 °C and 17 °C outcomes. Updated model runs through August 29 have shown minimal spread, supporting the current implied probabilities while leaving modest room for downward revision if clearer skies develop overnight on the 30th.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 31. August?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 31. August?
17°C 50%
16°C 40%
15°C 23%
14°C 17%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
12°C oder weniger
7%
13°C
15%
14°C
17%
15°C
23%
16°C
40%
17°C
50%
18°C
17%
19°C
15%
20°C
2%
21°C
8%
22°C oder höher
13%
17°C 50%
16°C 40%
15°C 23%
14°C 17%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
12°C oder weniger
$0 Vol.
7%
13°C
$0 Vol.
15%
14°C
$0 Vol.
17%
15°C
$0 Vol.
23%
16°C
$18 Vol.
40%
17°C
$6 Vol.
50%
18°C
$0 Vol.
17%
19°C
$0 Vol.
15%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
8%
22°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, show strong consensus for an overnight low of 16–17 °C in Paris on August 31, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light showers that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with observed minima of 16–17 °C over the preceding three nights and the seasonal transition toward early-September climatology, where average lows fall to ~13–15 °C. Historical analogs indicate that persistent marine influence and weak high pressure typically cap minimum temperatures near 16 °C under similar synoptic patterns, explaining the heavy market weighting on the 16 °C and 17 °C outcomes. Updated model runs through August 29 have shown minimal spread, supporting the current implied probabilities while leaving modest room for downward revision if clearer skies develop overnight on the 30th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$24Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, show strong consensus for an overnight low of 16–17 °C in Paris on August 31, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light showers that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with observed minima of 16–17 °C over the preceding three nights and the seasonal transition toward early-September climatology, where average lows fall to ~13–15 °C. Historical analogs indicate that persistent marine influence and weak high pressure typically cap minimum temperatures near 16 °C under similar synoptic patterns, explaining the heavy market weighting on the 16 °C and 17 °C outcomes. Updated model runs through August 29 have shown minimal spread, supporting the current implied probabilities while leaving modest room for downward revision if clearer skies develop overnight on the 30th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$24Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, show strong consensus for an overnight low of 16–17 °C in Paris on August 31, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light showers that limit radiational cooling. This aligns with observed minima of 16–17 °C over the preceding three nights and the seasonal transition toward early-September climatology, where average lows fall to ~13–15 °C. Historical analogs indicate that persistent marine influence and weak high pressure typically cap minimum temperatures near 16 °C under similar synoptic patterns, explaining the heavy market weighting on the 16 °C and 17 °C outcomes. Updated model runs through August 29 have shown minimal spread, supporting the current implied probabilities while leaving modest room for downward revision if clearer skies develop overnight on the 30th.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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