Forecast models from MetService and NIWA indicate an overnight minimum near 8°C for Wellington on August 21, consistent with the seasonal average low of approximately 8°C and near-average winter conditions across the region. Light winds and partly cloudy skies have limited further radiational cooling, while the absence of strong southerly flows or cold-air outbreaks has kept temperatures from dropping into the 6–7°C range. Trader consensus at 98% for 8°C reflects this stable forecast consensus and historical observation patterns at official stations. A late-model shift introducing stronger northerly advection or clearer skies overnight could realistically push the recorded minimum to 9°C or higher, though current guidance shows low probability of such deviation before resolution.