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Politik·Brasilien

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

icon for São Paulo Governor Election Winner
Politik·Brasilien

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Tarcísio de Freitas 82%

Fernando Haddad 9.5%

Kim Kataguiri 5.2%

Márcio França 2.0%

Polymarket

$20,401 Vol.

Tarcísio de Freitas 82%

Fernando Haddad 9.5%

Kim Kataguiri 5.2%

Márcio França 2.0%

Polymarket

$20,401 Vol.

icon for Tarcísio de Freitas

Tarcísio de Freitas

$10,702 Vol.

82%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$3,042 Vol.

10%

icon for Kim Kataguiri

Kim Kataguiri

$1,581 Vol.

5%

icon for Márcio França

Márcio França

$2,190 Vol.

2%

icon for Erika Hilton

Erika Hilton

$2,885 Vol.

1%

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$20,401
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$20,401
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„São Paulo Governor Election Winner" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Tarcísio de Freitas" mit 82%, gefolgt von „Fernando Haddad" mit 10%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 82¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 82% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „São Paulo Governor Election Winner" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $20.4K generiert, seit der Markt am Apr 27, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „São Paulo Governor Election Winner" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „São Paulo Governor Election Winner" ist „Tarcísio de Freitas" mit 82%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 82% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Fernando Haddad" mit 10%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „São Paulo Governor Election Winner" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.