OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Luna model drove the overwhelming trader consensus at 99.4% implied probability by surging to roughly 41% of OpenRouter token volume in the week of September 7–13, 2026. Fresh usage data from OpenRouter and independent trackers such as tidelines.ai show the model processing 18T+ tokens daily, lifting OpenAI's overall lab share to 25.6%—well ahead of DeepSeek at 21.5% and other labs. This reflects strong developer preference for the model's capabilities in production workloads after recent capability gains. While the lead appears decisive, final resolution hinges on the precise weekly aggregation window; a sudden routing shift toward cheaper open-weight alternatives or an unexpected data revision could still narrow the gap before settlement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOpenAI 100.0%
DeepSeek <1%
Z.ai <1%
Tencent <1%
$10,672 Vol.
$10,672 Vol.

DeepSeek
Nein

Z.ai
Nein

OpenAI
Ja

Tencent
Nein

Xiaomi
Nein

Nein

Anthropic
Nein

MiniMax
Nein

Nvidia
Nein

Qwen
Nein

Meta
Nein

xAI
Nein
OpenAI 100.0%
DeepSeek <1%
Z.ai <1%
Tencent <1%
$10,672 Vol.
$10,672 Vol.

DeepSeek
Nein

Z.ai
Nein

OpenAI
Ja

Tencent
Nein

Xiaomi
Nein

Nein

Anthropic
Nein

MiniMax
Nein

Nvidia
Nein

Qwen
Nein

Meta
Nein

xAI
Nein
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 11, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://openrouter.ai/rankingsAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://openrouter.ai/rankingsAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Luna model drove the overwhelming trader consensus at 99.4% implied probability by surging to roughly 41% of OpenRouter token volume in the week of September 7–13, 2026. Fresh usage data from OpenRouter and independent trackers such as tidelines.ai show the model processing 18T+ tokens daily, lifting OpenAI's overall lab share to 25.6%—well ahead of DeepSeek at 21.5% and other labs. This reflects strong developer preference for the model's capabilities in production workloads after recent capability gains. While the lead appears decisive, final resolution hinges on the precise weekly aggregation window; a sudden routing shift toward cheaper open-weight alternatives or an unexpected data revision could still narrow the gap before settlement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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