The UAE's abrupt May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ has not prompted follow-on departures, with core remaining members including Algeria, Russia, and Kazakhstan publicly reaffirming their commitment to the group's production framework and market-stabilization efforts. Ongoing monthly meetings have proceeded with incremental quota adjustments aimed at balancing supply amid regional tensions, reflecting institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Speculation around potential exits by countries like Kazakhstan or Iraq has surfaced due to spare capacity concerns but lacks official signals or policy shifts that would accelerate timelines into 2026. Trader consensus at 68.5% for no additional departures this year aligns with the absence of fresh diplomatic friction or capacity-driven announcements that could mirror the UAE's national-interest calculation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
$92,612 Vol.
$92,612 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
$92,612 Vol.
$92,612 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's abrupt May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ has not prompted follow-on departures, with core remaining members including Algeria, Russia, and Kazakhstan publicly reaffirming their commitment to the group's production framework and market-stabilization efforts. Ongoing monthly meetings have proceeded with incremental quota adjustments aimed at balancing supply amid regional tensions, reflecting institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Speculation around potential exits by countries like Kazakhstan or Iraq has surfaced due to spare capacity concerns but lacks official signals or policy shifts that would accelerate timelines into 2026. Trader consensus at 68.5% for no additional departures this year aligns with the absence of fresh diplomatic friction or capacity-driven announcements that could mirror the UAE's national-interest calculation.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volumen
$92,612Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's abrupt May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ has not prompted follow-on departures, with core remaining members including Algeria, Russia, and Kazakhstan publicly reaffirming their commitment to the group's production framework and market-stabilization efforts. Ongoing monthly meetings have proceeded with incremental quota adjustments aimed at balancing supply amid regional tensions, reflecting institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Speculation around potential exits by countries like Kazakhstan or Iraq has surfaced due to spare capacity concerns but lacks official signals or policy shifts that would accelerate timelines into 2026. Trader consensus at 68.5% for no additional departures this year aligns with the absence of fresh diplomatic friction or capacity-driven announcements that could mirror the UAE's national-interest calculation.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$92,612Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's abrupt May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ has not prompted follow-on departures, with core remaining members including Algeria, Russia, and Kazakhstan publicly reaffirming their commitment to the group's production framework and market-stabilization efforts. Ongoing monthly meetings have proceeded with incremental quota adjustments aimed at balancing supply amid regional tensions, reflecting institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Speculation around potential exits by countries like Kazakhstan or Iraq has surfaced due to spare capacity concerns but lacks official signals or policy shifts that would accelerate timelines into 2026. Trader consensus at 68.5% for no additional departures this year aligns with the absence of fresh diplomatic friction or capacity-driven announcements that could mirror the UAE's national-interest calculation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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