Recent U.S. naval interdictions and Iranian transit restrictions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 levels, with daily crossings often in the single digits and weekly totals around 20-38 vessels of all types. This sustained disruption has elevated war-risk insurance premiums, pushed VLCC freight rates sharply higher, and removed millions of barrels per day from global crude and LNG supply chains, supporting firmer Brent and WTI benchmarks amid elevated volatility. Tanker owners and charterers continue to favor longer alternative routes or loitering outside the strait, while limited Iranian-permitted passages for non-U.S.-flagged vessels have produced only modest week-over-week gains. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in mine-clearance operations, further U.S. Central Command guidance on escorted transits, or diplomatic signals ahead of the May 31 horizon that could alter risk pricing and daily throughput.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$478,212 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
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4%
$478,212 Vol.
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$111,855 Vol.
47%
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$117,394 Vol.
18%
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$67,055 Vol.
7%
80+
$181,908 Vol.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S. naval interdictions and Iranian transit restrictions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 levels, with daily crossings often in the single digits and weekly totals around 20-38 vessels of all types. This sustained disruption has elevated war-risk insurance premiums, pushed VLCC freight rates sharply higher, and removed millions of barrels per day from global crude and LNG supply chains, supporting firmer Brent and WTI benchmarks amid elevated volatility. Tanker owners and charterers continue to favor longer alternative routes or loitering outside the strait, while limited Iranian-permitted passages for non-U.S.-flagged vessels have produced only modest week-over-week gains. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in mine-clearance operations, further U.S. Central Command guidance on escorted transits, or diplomatic signals ahead of the May 31 horizon that could alter risk pricing and daily throughput.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volumen
$478,212Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S. naval interdictions and Iranian transit restrictions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 levels, with daily crossings often in the single digits and weekly totals around 20-38 vessels of all types. This sustained disruption has elevated war-risk insurance premiums, pushed VLCC freight rates sharply higher, and removed millions of barrels per day from global crude and LNG supply chains, supporting firmer Brent and WTI benchmarks amid elevated volatility. Tanker owners and charterers continue to favor longer alternative routes or loitering outside the strait, while limited Iranian-permitted passages for non-U.S.-flagged vessels have produced only modest week-over-week gains. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in mine-clearance operations, further U.S. Central Command guidance on escorted transits, or diplomatic signals ahead of the May 31 horizon that could alter risk pricing and daily throughput.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$478,212Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. naval interdictions and Iranian transit restrictions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 levels, with daily crossings often in the single digits and weekly totals around 20-38 vessels of all types. This sustained disruption has elevated war-risk insurance premiums, pushed VLCC freight rates sharply higher, and removed millions of barrels per day from global crude and LNG supply chains, supporting firmer Brent and WTI benchmarks amid elevated volatility. Tanker owners and charterers continue to favor longer alternative routes or loitering outside the strait, while limited Iranian-permitted passages for non-U.S.-flagged vessels have produced only modest week-over-week gains. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in mine-clearance operations, further U.S. Central Command guidance on escorted transits, or diplomatic signals ahead of the May 31 horizon that could alter risk pricing and daily throughput.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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