Ongoing Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September capture of Mocha and Mayyun Island, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and selective rerouting, anchoring trader consensus around subdued Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Recent IMF PortWatch and AIS data show 7-day moving averages of total vessel transits near 27 per day in mid-September, with observed daily counts ranging 21–31 amid tanker and container flows that remain roughly 40% below pre-2024 baselines. Saudi-linked avoidance following the July blockade, combined with higher insurance costs and carrier caution, continues to cap upside while preventing further sharp declines. With resolution tied to the September 30 seven-day average, market-implied odds reflect these persistent supply-chain frictions and limited near-term catalysts for normalization.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb a finales de septiembre?
¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb a finales de septiembre?
25-29 67%
<25 11.8%
30-34 10.4%
35-39 3.6%
$45,918 Vol.
$45,918 Vol.
30 sep 2026
<25
12%
25-29
67%
30-34
10%
35-39
4%
40+
3%
25-29 67%
<25 11.8%
30-34 10.4%
35-39 3.6%
$45,918 Vol.
$45,918 Vol.
30 sep 2026
<25
$18,408 Vol.
12%
25-29
$12,925 Vol.
67%
30-34
$7,007 Vol.
10%
35-39
$4,083 Vol.
4%
40+
$3,494 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.Ongoing Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September capture of Mocha and Mayyun Island, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and selective rerouting, anchoring trader consensus around subdued Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Recent IMF PortWatch and AIS data show 7-day moving averages of total vessel transits near 27 per day in mid-September, with observed daily counts ranging 21–31 amid tanker and container flows that remain roughly 40% below pre-2024 baselines. Saudi-linked avoidance following the July blockade, combined with higher insurance costs and carrier caution, continues to cap upside while preventing further sharp declines. With resolution tied to the September 30 seven-day average, market-implied odds reflect these persistent supply-chain frictions and limited near-term catalysts for normalization.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volumen
$45,918Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETFuente de resolución
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.Ongoing Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September capture of Mocha and Mayyun Island, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and selective rerouting, anchoring trader consensus around subdued Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Recent IMF PortWatch and AIS data show 7-day moving averages of total vessel transits near 27 per day in mid-September, with observed daily counts ranging 21–31 amid tanker and container flows that remain roughly 40% below pre-2024 baselines. Saudi-linked avoidance following the July blockade, combined with higher insurance costs and carrier caution, continues to cap upside while preventing further sharp declines. With resolution tied to the September 30 seven-day average, market-implied odds reflect these persistent supply-chain frictions and limited near-term catalysts for normalization.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Volumen
$45,918Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETFuente de resolución
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September capture of Mocha and Mayyun Island, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and selective rerouting, anchoring trader consensus around subdued Bab el-Mandeb volumes. Recent IMF PortWatch and AIS data show 7-day moving averages of total vessel transits near 27 per day in mid-September, with observed daily counts ranging 21–31 amid tanker and container flows that remain roughly 40% below pre-2024 baselines. Saudi-linked avoidance following the July blockade, combined with higher insurance costs and carrier caution, continues to cap upside while preventing further sharp declines. With resolution tied to the September 30 seven-day average, market-implied odds reflect these persistent supply-chain frictions and limited near-term catalysts for normalization.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes