Recent Houthi advances, including the September 10-11 seizure of Mokha port, Hanish Islands, and Perim Island at the strait’s center, have heightened risks for commercial traffic and reinforced the July 2026 Saudi shipping embargo. AIS data show daily transits falling to the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September, with sharp drops on September 14 and selective avoidance by Saudi-linked and major carriers rerouting via the Cape. These developments, amid ongoing attacks on targeted vessels, have compressed weekly volumes below historical averages and driven the market’s 59% implied probability on the sub-170 bracket as the consensus outcome for the week of September 14. Upcoming catalysts include any further territorial consolidation or shifts in carrier routing decisions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 14 de septiembre?
¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 14 de septiembre?
<170 59%
170-189 14%
190-209 12%
210-229 8%
$13,520 Vol.
$13,520 Vol.
20 sep 2026
<170
59%
170-189
14%
190-209
12%
210-229
8%
230+
4%
<170 59%
170-189 14%
190-209 12%
210-229 8%
$13,520 Vol.
$13,520 Vol.
20 sep 2026
<170
$5,246 Vol.
59%
170-189
$2,726 Vol.
14%
190-209
$2,703 Vol.
12%
210-229
$1,367 Vol.
8%
230+
$1,479 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi advances, including the September 10-11 seizure of Mokha port, Hanish Islands, and Perim Island at the strait’s center, have heightened risks for commercial traffic and reinforced the July 2026 Saudi shipping embargo. AIS data show daily transits falling to the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September, with sharp drops on September 14 and selective avoidance by Saudi-linked and major carriers rerouting via the Cape. These developments, amid ongoing attacks on targeted vessels, have compressed weekly volumes below historical averages and driven the market’s 59% implied probability on the sub-170 bracket as the consensus outcome for the week of September 14. Upcoming catalysts include any further territorial consolidation or shifts in carrier routing decisions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado abierto: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volumen
$13,520Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi advances, including the September 10-11 seizure of Mokha port, Hanish Islands, and Perim Island at the strait’s center, have heightened risks for commercial traffic and reinforced the July 2026 Saudi shipping embargo. AIS data show daily transits falling to the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September, with sharp drops on September 14 and selective avoidance by Saudi-linked and major carriers rerouting via the Cape. These developments, amid ongoing attacks on targeted vessels, have compressed weekly volumes below historical averages and driven the market’s 59% implied probability on the sub-170 bracket as the consensus outcome for the week of September 14. Upcoming catalysts include any further territorial consolidation or shifts in carrier routing decisions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$13,520Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi advances, including the September 10-11 seizure of Mokha port, Hanish Islands, and Perim Island at the strait’s center, have heightened risks for commercial traffic and reinforced the July 2026 Saudi shipping embargo. AIS data show daily transits falling to the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September, with sharp drops on September 14 and selective avoidance by Saudi-linked and major carriers rerouting via the Cape. These developments, amid ongoing attacks on targeted vessels, have compressed weekly volumes below historical averages and driven the market’s 59% implied probability on the sub-170 bracket as the consensus outcome for the week of September 14. Upcoming catalysts include any further territorial consolidation or shifts in carrier routing decisions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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