The Bank of Russia’s September 11, 2026 key rate decision occurs against a backdrop of gradual easing from the prior 21% peak, with the policy rate now at 14% following the July 25-basis-point cut. Traders assign the highest probability to no change, reflecting the central bank’s July signal for smoother reductions amid temporary fuel-price pressures from refinery disruptions, elevated inflation expectations, and a more expansionary fiscal stance that prompted an upward revision to the 2026 inflation forecast (6–7%). Underlying inflation measures remain near the 4–5% range, while moderate economic growth, decelerating lending, and softer corporate demand expectations support the case for holding steady. A further modest cut retains meaningful probability if incoming data confirm sustained disinflation without second-round effects, whereas an increase remains a low-probability outlier given the ongoing cycle. Scheduled data releases and any fiscal updates before the meeting represent the primary near-term catalysts.