Forecast models from sources including the KNMI-aligned European guidance and GFS runs indicate a highest temperature of 18–20 °C in Amsterdam on September 21, with afternoon peaks near 19 °C under mostly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and stable high pressure near 1030 hPa. This consensus, close to the 1991–2020 average high of 18.5 °C, underpins the market’s 64 % implied probability for 19 °C and 24.5 % for 20 °C. Limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and onshore flow suppress further warming, while the absence of warm-air advection keeps lower outcomes (18 °C or below) at a combined 14 %. Updated model runs through September 20 show minimal spread, supporting trader positioning ahead of final observational data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Ámsterdam el 21 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Ámsterdam el 21 de septiembre?
19°C 61%
20°C 26%
18°C 12%
17°C 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
13°C o menos
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
4%
18°C
12%
19°C
61%
20°C
26%
21°C
3%
22°C
<1%
23°C o más
<1%
19°C 61%
20°C 26%
18°C 12%
17°C 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
13°C o menos
$267 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$231 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$79 Vol.
1%
16°C
$558 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$475 Vol.
4%
18°C
$1,454 Vol.
12%
19°C
$2,717 Vol.
61%
20°C
$1,561 Vol.
26%
21°C
$668 Vol.
3%
22°C
$75 Vol.
<1%
23°C o más
$83 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the KNMI-aligned European guidance and GFS runs indicate a highest temperature of 18–20 °C in Amsterdam on September 21, with afternoon peaks near 19 °C under mostly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and stable high pressure near 1030 hPa. This consensus, close to the 1991–2020 average high of 18.5 °C, underpins the market’s 64 % implied probability for 19 °C and 24.5 % for 20 °C. Limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and onshore flow suppress further warming, while the absence of warm-air advection keeps lower outcomes (18 °C or below) at a combined 14 %. Updated model runs through September 20 show minimal spread, supporting trader positioning ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volumen
$8,168Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the KNMI-aligned European guidance and GFS runs indicate a highest temperature of 18–20 °C in Amsterdam on September 21, with afternoon peaks near 19 °C under mostly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and stable high pressure near 1030 hPa. This consensus, close to the 1991–2020 average high of 18.5 °C, underpins the market’s 64 % implied probability for 19 °C and 24.5 % for 20 °C. Limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and onshore flow suppress further warming, while the absence of warm-air advection keeps lower outcomes (18 °C or below) at a combined 14 %. Updated model runs through September 20 show minimal spread, supporting trader positioning ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$8,168Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the KNMI-aligned European guidance and GFS runs indicate a highest temperature of 18–20 °C in Amsterdam on September 21, with afternoon peaks near 19 °C under mostly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and stable high pressure near 1030 hPa. This consensus, close to the 1991–2020 average high of 18.5 °C, underpins the market’s 64 % implied probability for 19 °C and 24.5 % for 20 °C. Limited solar heating from persistent cloud cover and onshore flow suppress further warming, while the absence of warm-air advection keeps lower outcomes (18 °C or below) at a combined 14 %. Updated model runs through September 20 show minimal spread, supporting trader positioning ahead of final observational data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes