Current numerical weather prediction models indicate a most likely daily high temperature of 16–17°C in Ankara on May 18, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 38.5% and 28% implied probability. This reflects typical late-spring conditions in the region’s continental climate, where average May highs reach about 21°C but can moderate under prevailing northerly flows and partial cloud cover. Recent model runs show limited variability, with consensus favoring modest daytime warming before any potential evening cooling. Traders are closely monitoring updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service ahead of the final 48-hour forecast window, as small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction could still nudge the peak toward 18°C or hold it at 15°C.