**Latest AEMET forecasts project a daytime maximum of 35°C in Madrid on June 18, with minimums around 21°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds.** This aligns closely with ensemble guidance from numerical models, where subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, peak insolation timing, and minor advection of warmer air from the interior could push readings to 36°C at official stations. The near-even split in market-implied odds between 35°C and 36°C reflects this narrow uncertainty band typical of high-resolution short-range forecasts two days ahead, with lower probabilities for 34°C or 37°C+ underscoring the limited scope for larger deviations given current synoptic patterns and seasonal norms near 29–30°C. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings on the 17th will likely refine the exact peak.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 18?
35°C 42%
36°C 40%
34°C 13%
37°C 8.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 jun 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
13%
35°C
42%
36°C
40%
37°C
9%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 42%
36°C 40%
34°C 13%
37°C 8.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 jun 2026
31°C or below
$612 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$553 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$312 Vol.
1%
34°C
$579 Vol.
13%
35°C
$614 Vol.
42%
36°C
$1,113 Vol.
40%
37°C
$493 Vol.
9%
38°C
$398 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$397 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$302 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$302 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest AEMET forecasts project a daytime maximum of 35°C in Madrid on June 18, with minimums around 21°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds.** This aligns closely with ensemble guidance from numerical models, where subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, peak insolation timing, and minor advection of warmer air from the interior could push readings to 36°C at official stations. The near-even split in market-implied odds between 35°C and 36°C reflects this narrow uncertainty band typical of high-resolution short-range forecasts two days ahead, with lower probabilities for 34°C or 37°C+ underscoring the limited scope for larger deviations given current synoptic patterns and seasonal norms near 29–30°C. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings on the 17th will likely refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 16, 2026, 1:12 AM ET
Volumen
$5,675Fecha de finalización
18 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 16, 2026, 1:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest AEMET forecasts project a daytime maximum of 35°C in Madrid on June 18, with minimums around 21°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds.** This aligns closely with ensemble guidance from numerical models, where subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, peak insolation timing, and minor advection of warmer air from the interior could push readings to 36°C at official stations. The near-even split in market-implied odds between 35°C and 36°C reflects this narrow uncertainty band typical of high-resolution short-range forecasts two days ahead, with lower probabilities for 34°C or 37°C+ underscoring the limited scope for larger deviations given current synoptic patterns and seasonal norms near 29–30°C. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings on the 17th will likely refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,675Fecha de finalización
18 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 16, 2026, 1:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest AEMET forecasts project a daytime maximum of 35°C in Madrid on June 18, with minimums around 21°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds.** This aligns closely with ensemble guidance from numerical models, where subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, peak insolation timing, and minor advection of warmer air from the interior could push readings to 36°C at official stations. The near-even split in market-implied odds between 35°C and 36°C reflects this narrow uncertainty band typical of high-resolution short-range forecasts two days ahead, with lower probabilities for 34°C or 37°C+ underscoring the limited scope for larger deviations given current synoptic patterns and seasonal norms near 29–30°C. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings on the 17th will likely refine the exact peak.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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