Ongoing U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iranian targets since late February 2026, followed by Iranian retaliatory strikes across the region, have driven repeated Middle East airspace restrictions and sustained trader focus on potential Iranian closures. Partial reopening of eastern corridors for transit flights occurred in recent weeks amid a reported ceasefire, yet most international carriers continue avoiding Iranian routes due to missile and drone risks. Diplomatic statements from Iranian officials and monitoring by civil aviation authorities underscore lingering uncertainty, with scheduled regional developments and any escalation in Gulf tensions likely to influence near-term probability assessments reflected in market pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
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