Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including prior U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iranian targets, prompted Iran to close parts of its airspace for weeks earlier in 2026 before a partial reopening of eastern routes in April. Airlines have continued avoiding the area despite the limited resumption of operations at Tehran’s main airport, reflecting persistent safety concerns. Trader sentiment for a renewed closure by late May centers on risks of further escalation, such as additional strikes, proxy confrontations, or shifts in diplomatic signaling that could trigger broader flight suspensions. Scheduled regional developments, including any new U.S. force movements or Iranian responses, remain key variables that could alter probabilities before the end of the month.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
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