Ongoing conflict with Israel, including recent U.S.-mediated talks in Rome and Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, prompted parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone elections from May 2026 until 2028, extending its term amid security and logistical disruptions. This delay, combined with efforts to restrict Hezbollah's military activities and broader political fragmentation across sectarian lines, has left the contest wide open, reflected in trader consensus assigning negligible implied probabilities to all listed parties. Amal Movement edges slightly higher due to Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role in mediation and Shia community representation, yet even its position faces pressure from internal rifts and disarmament debates. Key differentiators include alliances with or opposition to Hezbollah, diaspora voting mechanics, and reformist versus established blocs, while upcoming diplomatic developments or shifts in the conflict could consolidate support ahead of the rescheduled vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano
Movimiento Amal (Amal) 2.1%
Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA) <1%
Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) <1%
Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP) <1%
$666,219 Vol.
$666,219 Vol.
Movimiento Amal (Amal)
2%
Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA)
<1%
Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)
<1%
Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP)
<1%
Movimiento Patriótico Libre (FPM)
<1%
Partido Taqaddom
<1%
Lana – Partido Socialdemócrata (Lana)
<1%
Alianza Watani (Watani)
<1%
Hezbolá (Hezb)
<1%
Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)
<1%
Movimiento Marada (MM)
<1%
Grupo Islámico (IG)
<1%
Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
Partido Socialista Progresista (PSP)
<1%
Movimiento de la Independencia (IM)
<1%
Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)
<1%
Partido Mada (Mada)
<1%
Movimiento Dignidad (MD)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Federación Revolucionaria Armenia (FRA)
<1%
Partido de la Unión (UP)
<1%
Organización Naserista Popular (PNO)
<1%
Movimiento Amal (Amal) 2.1%
Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA) <1%
Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) <1%
Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP) <1%
$666,219 Vol.
$666,219 Vol.
Movimiento Amal (Amal)
2%
Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA)
<1%
Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)
<1%
Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP)
<1%
Movimiento Patriótico Libre (FPM)
<1%
Partido Taqaddom
<1%
Lana – Partido Socialdemócrata (Lana)
<1%
Alianza Watani (Watani)
<1%
Hezbolá (Hezb)
<1%
Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)
<1%
Movimiento Marada (MM)
<1%
Grupo Islámico (IG)
<1%
Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
Partido Socialista Progresista (PSP)
<1%
Movimiento de la Independencia (IM)
<1%
Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)
<1%
Partido Mada (Mada)
<1%
Movimiento Dignidad (MD)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Federación Revolucionaria Armenia (FRA)
<1%
Partido de la Unión (UP)
<1%
Organización Naserista Popular (PNO)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ongoing conflict with Israel, including recent U.S.-mediated talks in Rome and Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, prompted parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone elections from May 2026 until 2028, extending its term amid security and logistical disruptions. This delay, combined with efforts to restrict Hezbollah's military activities and broader political fragmentation across sectarian lines, has left the contest wide open, reflected in trader consensus assigning negligible implied probabilities to all listed parties. Amal Movement edges slightly higher due to Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role in mediation and Shia community representation, yet even its position faces pressure from internal rifts and disarmament debates. Key differentiators include alliances with or opposition to Hezbollah, diaspora voting mechanics, and reformist versus established blocs, while upcoming diplomatic developments or shifts in the conflict could consolidate support ahead of the rescheduled vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado



Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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