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Elecciones·Oriente Medio

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano

icon for Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano
Elecciones·Oriente Medio

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano

Movimiento Amal (Amal) 5.7%

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) 3.1%

Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA) 2.5%

Hezbolá (Hezb) 2.4%

Polymarket

$524,585 Vol.

Movimiento Amal (Amal) 5.7%

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) 3.1%

Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA) 2.5%

Hezbolá (Hezb) 2.4%

Polymarket

$524,585 Vol.

Movimiento Amal (Amal)

$53,618 Vol.

6%

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)

$157,880 Vol.

3%

Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA)

$3,740 Vol.

2%

Hezbolá (Hezb)

$43,788 Vol.

2%

Movimiento Patriótico Libre (FPM)

$73,463 Vol.

2%

Movimiento Marada (MM)

$2,927 Vol.

2%

Organización Naserista Popular (PNO)

$3,541 Vol.

2%

Partido Taqaddom

$5,492 Vol.

2%

ReLebanon

$2,773 Vol.

1%

Grupo Islámico (IG)

$3,426 Vol.

1%

Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)

$4,123 Vol.

1%

Partido de la Unión (UP)

$3,064 Vol.

1%

Alianza Watani (Watani)

$3,754 Vol.

1%

Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)

$3,996 Vol.

1%

Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP)

$41,888 Vol.

<1%

Federación Revolucionaria Armenia (FRA)

$5,112 Vol.

<1%

Partido Mada (Mada)

$24,363 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partido Socialdemócrata (Lana)

$4,440 Vol.

<1%

Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz)

$6,562 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$3,329 Vol.

<1%

Partido Socialista Progresista (PSP)

$47,456 Vol.

<1%

Movimiento de la Independencia (IM)

$3,135 Vol.

<1%

Movimiento Dignidad (MD)

$22,716 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's confessional electoral system and long-running economic crisis sustain a deeply fragmented field for the parliamentary election winner, with no party exceeding low single-digit implied probabilities amid broad uncertainty over turnout and alliances. The 2026 conflict with Israel prompted parliament to postpone the May vote until 2028, weakening Hezbollah-linked blocs while prompting reformist and opposition groups to seek wider coalitions. Amal Movement edges ahead due to Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role and Shiite base, yet Christian parties like Lebanese Forces and Kataeb pursue cross-sectarian partnerships to challenge traditional March 8 alignments. Diaspora voting limits, candidate registration deadlines, and lingering security concerns further diffuse support, leaving consolidation dependent on late alliance shifts or turnout surges in key districts.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$524,585
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's confessional electoral system and long-running economic crisis sustain a deeply fragmented field for the parliamentary election winner, with no party exceeding low single-digit implied probabilities amid broad uncertainty over turnout and alliances. The 2026 conflict with Israel prompted parliament to postpone the May vote until 2028, weakening Hezbollah-linked blocs while prompting reformist and opposition groups to seek wider coalitions. Amal Movement edges ahead due to Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role and Shiite base, yet Christian parties like Lebanese Forces and Kataeb pursue cross-sectarian partnerships to challenge traditional March 8 alignments. Diaspora voting limits, candidate registration deadlines, and lingering security concerns further diffuse support, leaving consolidation dependent on late alliance shifts or turnout surges in key districts.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$524,585
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 23 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Movimiento Amal (Amal)" con 6%, seguido de "Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)" con 3%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 6¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 6% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" ha generado $524.6K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano", explora los 23 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" es "Movimiento Amal (Amal)" con solo 6%, con "Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)" muy cerca con 3%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.