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Elections·Middle East

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

icon for Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Elections·Middle East

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Lebanese Forces (LF) 2.3%

Amal Movement (Amal) 2.2%

Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) <1%

Polymarket

$617,674 Vol.

Lebanese Forces (LF) 2.3%

Amal Movement (Amal) 2.2%

Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) <1%

Polymarket

$617,674 Vol.

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$161,603 Vol.

2%

Amal Movement (Amal)

$62,358 Vol.

2%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$49,524 Vol.

1%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)

$76,865 Vol.

<1%

Union Party (UP)

$5,587 Vol.

<1%

National Dialogue Party (NDP)

$43,548 Vol.

<1%

Mada Party (Mada)

$24,722 Vol.

<1%

Taqaddom Party

$8,991 Vol.

<1%

Watani Alliance (Watani)

$5,633 Vol.

<1%

Kataeb Party (Kataeb)

$5,159 Vol.

<1%

Marada Movement (MM)

$6,482 Vol.

<1%

Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)

$5,888 Vol.

<1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$6,855 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)

$13,761 Vol.

<1%

Islamic Group (IG)

$7,620 Vol.

<1%

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)

$9,691 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$8,477 Vol.

<1%

Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)

$52,225 Vol.

<1%

Independence Movement (IM)

$7,894 Vol.

<1%

National Liberal Party (NLP)

$8,596 Vol.

<1%

Dignity Movement (DM)

$28,157 Vol.

<1%

ReLebanon

$9,486 Vol.

<1%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

$8,549 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed by two years after parliament extended its mandate in March amid renewed full-scale conflict with Israel and widespread displacement. This delay, coupled with the 2026 war’s damage to infrastructure and supply lines, has left the contest for the 128 seats highly uncertain under the sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement holds the highest implied probability among listed options due to its organizational reach in core Shiite districts and Speaker Nabih Berri’s long-standing influence, while Lebanese Forces and other Christian parties eye potential diaspora support and reform appeals. Hezbollah faces leadership losses and scrutiny over disarmament, and opposition or independent lists remain fragmented without unified alliances. Trader pricing reflects this dispersion, where coalition negotiations, expatriate turnout, reconstruction priorities, and any further security shifts could consolidate or redistribute seats across the wide field before the rescheduled vote.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$617,674
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed by two years after parliament extended its mandate in March amid renewed full-scale conflict with Israel and widespread displacement. This delay, coupled with the 2026 war’s damage to infrastructure and supply lines, has left the contest for the 128 seats highly uncertain under the sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement holds the highest implied probability among listed options due to its organizational reach in core Shiite districts and Speaker Nabih Berri’s long-standing influence, while Lebanese Forces and other Christian parties eye potential diaspora support and reform appeals. Hezbollah faces leadership losses and scrutiny over disarmament, and opposition or independent lists remain fragmented without unified alliances. Trader pricing reflects this dispersion, where coalition negotiations, expatriate turnout, reconstruction priorities, and any further security shifts could consolidate or redistribute seats across the wide field before the rescheduled vote.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$617,674
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 23 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Lebanese Forces (LF)" con 2%, seguido de "Amal Movement (Amal)" con 2%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 2¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 2% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" ha generado $617.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner", explora los 23 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" es "Lebanese Forces (LF)" con solo 2%, con "Amal Movement (Amal)" muy cerca con 2%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.