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Elecciones·Oriente Medio

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano

icon for Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano
Elecciones·Oriente Medio

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano

Movimiento Amal (Amal) 2.1%

Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA) <1%

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) <1%

Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP) <1%

Polymarket

$666,219 Vol.

Movimiento Amal (Amal) 2.1%

Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA) <1%

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) <1%

Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP) <1%

Polymarket

$666,219 Vol.

Movimiento Amal (Amal)

$63,909 Vol.

2%

Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA)

$9,181 Vol.

<1%

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)

$167,783 Vol.

<1%

Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP)

$46,764 Vol.

<1%

Movimiento Patriótico Libre (FPM)

$79,518 Vol.

<1%

Partido Taqaddom

$11,776 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partido Socialdemócrata (Lana)

$13,761 Vol.

<1%

Alianza Watani (Watani)

$7,539 Vol.

<1%

Hezbolá (Hezb)

$52,901 Vol.

<1%

Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)

$7,370 Vol.

<1%

Movimiento Marada (MM)

$8,688 Vol.

<1%

Grupo Islámico (IG)

$8,631 Vol.

<1%

Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz)

$10,710 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$9,477 Vol.

<1%

Partido Socialista Progresista (PSP)

$55,015 Vol.

<1%

Movimiento de la Independencia (IM)

$8,894 Vol.

<1%

Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)

$9,599 Vol.

<1%

Partido Mada (Mada)

$28,113 Vol.

<1%

Movimiento Dignidad (MD)

$29,195 Vol.

<1%

ReLebanon

$9,819 Vol.

<1%

Federación Revolucionaria Armenia (FRA)

$10,552 Vol.

<1%

Partido de la Unión (UP)

$7,760 Vol.

<1%

Organización Naserista Popular (PNO)

$9,264 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed until 2028 after parliament extended its mandate amid the 2026 Israel-Hezbollah war, displacement, and security disruptions. This extended timeline, combined with Lebanon's confessional seat allocation and history of coalition-dependent outcomes rather than outright majorities, has kept probabilities low across a field of over twenty parties. Amal Movement's marginal lead reflects its consistent Shiite representation, Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, and alliance stability with Hezbollah, while opposition groups like the Lebanese Forces and fragmented independents or reformist lists face challenges consolidating votes. Key differentiators include diaspora registration trends, the splintered "Change" bloc performance, and alliance negotiations ahead of any future vote; consolidation behind one contender would require major shifts in sectarian turnout or new electoral reforms within the resolution window.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$666,219
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed until 2028 after parliament extended its mandate amid the 2026 Israel-Hezbollah war, displacement, and security disruptions. This extended timeline, combined with Lebanon's confessional seat allocation and history of coalition-dependent outcomes rather than outright majorities, has kept probabilities low across a field of over twenty parties. Amal Movement's marginal lead reflects its consistent Shiite representation, Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, and alliance stability with Hezbollah, while opposition groups like the Lebanese Forces and fragmented independents or reformist lists face challenges consolidating votes. Key differentiators include diaspora registration trends, the splintered "Change" bloc performance, and alliance negotiations ahead of any future vote; consolidation behind one contender would require major shifts in sectarian turnout or new electoral reforms within the resolution window.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$666,219
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 23 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Movimiento Amal (Amal)" con 2%, seguido de "Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA)" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 2¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 2% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" ha generado $666.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano", explora los 23 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" es "Movimiento Amal (Amal)" con solo 2%, con "Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA)" muy cerca con 0%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.