Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Nueva York el 14 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Nueva York el 14 de mayo?
56-57°F 100.0%
45°F o menos <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$21,412 Vol.
$21,412 Vol.
14 may 2026
45°F o menos
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
Sí
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64°F o más
No
56-57°F 100.0%
45°F o menos <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$21,412 Vol.
$21,412 Vol.
14 may 2026
45°F o menos
$869 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$913 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$808 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$1,225 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$1,028 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$2,727 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$8,374 Vol.
Sí
58-59°F
$2,407 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$1,248 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$619 Vol.
No
64°F o más
$1,194 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$21,412Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$21,412Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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