Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 14 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 14 de mayo?
20°C 100.0%
15°C o menos <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$23,490 Vol.
$23,490 Vol.
14 may 2026
15°C o menos
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Sí
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C o más
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C o menos <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$23,490 Vol.
$23,490 Vol.
14 may 2026
15°C o menos
$298 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,183 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,381 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,821 Vol.
No
19°C
$5,531 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,019 Vol.
Sí
21°C
$7,284 Vol.
No
22°C
$703 Vol.
No
23°C
$670 Vol.
No
24°C
$844 Vol.
No
25°C o más
$757 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volumen
$23,490Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$23,490Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14, 2026, driven by early-morning observations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming this minimum amid urban heat island effects that elevate nighttime lows in the densely built metropolis. High humidity levels (73-82%), light easterly winds (10-13 km/h), and partly cloudy skies have limited radiative cooling, aligning with consensus outputs from GFS and ECMWF models projecting exactly 20°C—above the typical mid-May climatological low of 17-18°C due to a warmer air mass. Official Wunderground data from the Pudong station (ZSPD) will finalize resolution, but a drop below 20°C would require unexpected clearing and drier conditions overnight, which current trends contradict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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