US economic resilience through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative full-year GDP growth. First-half data showed annualized real GDP expansion of 2.1% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by consumer spending, business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing capital, and residual effects from 2025 fiscal measures, while forecasters from the CBO, Conference Board, and S&P Global project 2.0-2.3% growth for the year overall. This consensus reflects a stable labor market near 4.5% unemployment and contained recession probabilities. Tail risks that could still trigger contraction include sharp escalation in tariffs disrupting trade flows, an abrupt financial shock, or deeper consumer retrenchment amid elevated rates and affordability pressures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
Sí
4% probabilidad
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 ene 2027
Sí
4% probabilidad
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 ene 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.US economic resilience through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative full-year GDP growth. First-half data showed annualized real GDP expansion of 2.1% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by consumer spending, business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing capital, and residual effects from 2025 fiscal measures, while forecasters from the CBO, Conference Board, and S&P Global project 2.0-2.3% growth for the year overall. This consensus reflects a stable labor market near 4.5% unemployment and contained recession probabilities. Tail risks that could still trigger contraction include sharp escalation in tariffs disrupting trade flows, an abrupt financial shock, or deeper consumer retrenchment amid elevated rates and affordability pressures.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$32,234Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.US economic resilience through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative full-year GDP growth. First-half data showed annualized real GDP expansion of 2.1% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by consumer spending, business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing capital, and residual effects from 2025 fiscal measures, while forecasters from the CBO, Conference Board, and S&P Global project 2.0-2.3% growth for the year overall. This consensus reflects a stable labor market near 4.5% unemployment and contained recession probabilities. Tail risks that could still trigger contraction include sharp escalation in tariffs disrupting trade flows, an abrupt financial shock, or deeper consumer retrenchment amid elevated rates and affordability pressures.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$32,234Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US economic resilience through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative full-year GDP growth. First-half data showed annualized real GDP expansion of 2.1% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by consumer spending, business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing capital, and residual effects from 2025 fiscal measures, while forecasters from the CBO, Conference Board, and S&P Global project 2.0-2.3% growth for the year overall. This consensus reflects a stable labor market near 4.5% unemployment and contained recession probabilities. Tail risks that could still trigger contraction include sharp escalation in tariffs disrupting trade flows, an abrupt financial shock, or deeper consumer retrenchment amid elevated rates and affordability pressures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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