Brian Poindexter holds an 85.5% implied probability on Polymarket to win Ohio’s 7th District because personal allegations against Republican incumbent Max Miller have eroded his support in a district that leaned Republican by roughly five points. Miller faces ongoing accusations of domestic abuse from his ex-wife amid a custody dispute, prompting some Republican criticism and prompting the House Ethics Committee review; polling from late October shows Poindexter leading narrowly or tied among likely voters. Poindexter, a union ironworker and former Brook Park council member, has outraised Miller and maintains stronger cash reserves heading into the November 3 election, while outside groups have poured millions into the contest. Forecasters rate the race a toss-up or lean Democratic, with trader consensus reflecting the impact of candidate-specific vulnerabilities over the district’s partisan baseline.