**Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown resilience amid wartime economic pressures, elite frictions, and public fatigue with the Ukraine conflict.** Recent military command reshuffles, including new leadership for unmanned systems and logistics roles in August 2026, alongside FSB actions targeting external threats, reflect ongoing efforts to consolidate control rather than internal fracture. Speculation around figures such as Sergei Shoigu or security service tensions has circulated since spring, prompting tighter personal protection protocols, yet analysts describe these as manageable strains without organized mechanisms for a challenge. Parliamentary elections scheduled for September 2026 have featured suppression of nominal opposition but no broader unrest. Traders price a coup attempt as improbable this year because the security apparatus remains loyal, power verticals intact, and no catalytic events have materialized despite documented stresses on elite cohesion and resources.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado7% probabilidad
$126,284 Vol.
$126,284 Vol.
30 dic 2026
7% probabilidad
$126,284 Vol.
$126,284 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown resilience amid wartime economic pressures, elite frictions, and public fatigue with the Ukraine conflict.** Recent military command reshuffles, including new leadership for unmanned systems and logistics roles in August 2026, alongside FSB actions targeting external threats, reflect ongoing efforts to consolidate control rather than internal fracture. Speculation around figures such as Sergei Shoigu or security service tensions has circulated since spring, prompting tighter personal protection protocols, yet analysts describe these as manageable strains without organized mechanisms for a challenge. Parliamentary elections scheduled for September 2026 have featured suppression of nominal opposition but no broader unrest. Traders price a coup attempt as improbable this year because the security apparatus remains loyal, power verticals intact, and no catalytic events have materialized despite documented stresses on elite cohesion and resources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volumen
$126,284Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown resilience amid wartime economic pressures, elite frictions, and public fatigue with the Ukraine conflict.** Recent military command reshuffles, including new leadership for unmanned systems and logistics roles in August 2026, alongside FSB actions targeting external threats, reflect ongoing efforts to consolidate control rather than internal fracture. Speculation around figures such as Sergei Shoigu or security service tensions has circulated since spring, prompting tighter personal protection protocols, yet analysts describe these as manageable strains without organized mechanisms for a challenge. Parliamentary elections scheduled for September 2026 have featured suppression of nominal opposition but no broader unrest. Traders price a coup attempt as improbable this year because the security apparatus remains loyal, power verticals intact, and no catalytic events have materialized despite documented stresses on elite cohesion and resources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$126,284Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown resilience amid wartime economic pressures, elite frictions, and public fatigue with the Ukraine conflict.** Recent military command reshuffles, including new leadership for unmanned systems and logistics roles in August 2026, alongside FSB actions targeting external threats, reflect ongoing efforts to consolidate control rather than internal fracture. Speculation around figures such as Sergei Shoigu or security service tensions has circulated since spring, prompting tighter personal protection protocols, yet analysts describe these as manageable strains without organized mechanisms for a challenge. Parliamentary elections scheduled for September 2026 have featured suppression of nominal opposition but no broader unrest. Traders price a coup attempt as improbable this year because the security apparatus remains loyal, power verticals intact, and no catalytic events have materialized despite documented stresses on elite cohesion and resources.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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