USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data show steady summit inflation following the abrupt switch from deflation at the end of episode 52, with continued positive trends and vent glow signaling magma recharge beneath Halemaʻumaʻu. Current tilt-based models narrow the window for episode 53 lava fountaining to August 8–12, tightening from the prior August 7–14 range as reinflation rates stabilize. This leaves the closely matched market bins reflecting uncertainty in exact timing: slower-than-modeled accumulation could push onset later, while accelerated inflation or precursory seismicity might advance it, with daily model updates and real-time deformation monitoring likely to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.