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Geopolítica·Operativo

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?

icon for Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
Geopolítica·Operativo

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?

11% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
11% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for an Iranian agent being formally charged by US federal or state authorities before May 31, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice (DOJ) indictments or announcements in the past month amid ongoing tensions. The latest major legal action was the March 6 conviction of Asif Merchant, a Pakistani IRGC-linked operative, on terrorism and murder-for-hire charges in a foiled plot targeting US politicians including Donald Trump. Recent related developments, like a May 13 guilty plea by an Iranian-American for smuggling an IRGC-tied individual into the US and April arrests for Iran-backed arms trafficking, fall short of qualifying as agent charges. With the deadline approaching and no visible procedural momentum such as unsealed indictments or court filings, traders see slim odds of a shift barring late-breaking enforcement action.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$4,205
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for an Iranian agent being formally charged by US federal or state authorities before May 31, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice (DOJ) indictments or announcements in the past month amid ongoing tensions. The latest major legal action was the March 6 conviction of Asif Merchant, a Pakistani IRGC-linked operative, on terrorism and murder-for-hire charges in a foiled plot targeting US politicians including Donald Trump. Recent related developments, like a May 13 guilty plea by an Iranian-American for smuggling an IRGC-tied individual into the US and April arrests for Iran-backed arms trafficking, fall short of qualifying as agent charges. With the deadline approaching and no visible procedural momentum such as unsealed indictments or court filings, traders see slim odds of a shift barring late-breaking enforcement action.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$4,205
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 11% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 11¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 11% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 20, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?" es 11% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 11% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.