Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the continued pattern of gray-zone operations rather than preparations for large-scale amphibious assault. Recent months show reduced PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ alongside elevated China Coast Guard patrols east of the island and exercises emphasizing blockade and encirclement tactics. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, drone procurement, live-fire drills integrating unmanned systems, and resilience exercises. Diplomatic engagement, including the scheduled Trump-Xi meeting later this month, further supports de-escalation signals. With only two weeks remaining, logistical barriers to mounting and sustaining a full invasion render any sudden shift improbable absent an unforeseen trigger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
<1% probabilidad
$2,131,299 Vol.
$2,131,299 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
<1% probabilidad
$2,131,299 Vol.
$2,131,299 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the continued pattern of gray-zone operations rather than preparations for large-scale amphibious assault. Recent months show reduced PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ alongside elevated China Coast Guard patrols east of the island and exercises emphasizing blockade and encirclement tactics. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, drone procurement, live-fire drills integrating unmanned systems, and resilience exercises. Diplomatic engagement, including the scheduled Trump-Xi meeting later this month, further supports de-escalation signals. With only two weeks remaining, logistical barriers to mounting and sustaining a full invasion render any sudden shift improbable absent an unforeseen trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$2,131,299Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the continued pattern of gray-zone operations rather than preparations for large-scale amphibious assault. Recent months show reduced PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ alongside elevated China Coast Guard patrols east of the island and exercises emphasizing blockade and encirclement tactics. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, drone procurement, live-fire drills integrating unmanned systems, and resilience exercises. Diplomatic engagement, including the scheduled Trump-Xi meeting later this month, further supports de-escalation signals. With only two weeks remaining, logistical barriers to mounting and sustaining a full invasion render any sudden shift improbable absent an unforeseen trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$2,131,299Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the continued pattern of gray-zone operations rather than preparations for large-scale amphibious assault. Recent months show reduced PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ alongside elevated China Coast Guard patrols east of the island and exercises emphasizing blockade and encirclement tactics. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, drone procurement, live-fire drills integrating unmanned systems, and resilience exercises. Diplomatic engagement, including the scheduled Trump-Xi meeting later this month, further supports de-escalation signals. With only two weeks remaining, logistical barriers to mounting and sustaining a full invasion render any sudden shift improbable absent an unforeseen trigger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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