Recent diplomatic agreements have shaped trader expectations against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and subsequent ceasefire, the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum established a framework for ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting select sanctions, and pursuing a final nuclear accord within an extendable 60-day window. Ongoing technical talks, mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, and commitments to economic reconstruction have sustained de-escalation despite July incidents involving shipping attacks and resumed exchanges. With active negotiations addressing enrichment limits and regional security, and no verified plans for ground operations or regime-change actions by late 2026, the 83.5% probability on “No” reflects the current emphasis on diplomacy over renewed large-scale conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?
¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
17% probabilidad
$58,612,637 Vol.
$58,612,637 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
17% probabilidad
$58,612,637 Vol.
$58,612,637 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic agreements have shaped trader expectations against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and subsequent ceasefire, the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum established a framework for ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting select sanctions, and pursuing a final nuclear accord within an extendable 60-day window. Ongoing technical talks, mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, and commitments to economic reconstruction have sustained de-escalation despite July incidents involving shipping attacks and resumed exchanges. With active negotiations addressing enrichment limits and regional security, and no verified plans for ground operations or regime-change actions by late 2026, the 83.5% probability on “No” reflects the current emphasis on diplomacy over renewed large-scale conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Volumen
$58,612,637Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic agreements have shaped trader expectations against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and subsequent ceasefire, the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum established a framework for ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting select sanctions, and pursuing a final nuclear accord within an extendable 60-day window. Ongoing technical talks, mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, and commitments to economic reconstruction have sustained de-escalation despite July incidents involving shipping attacks and resumed exchanges. With active negotiations addressing enrichment limits and regional security, and no verified plans for ground operations or regime-change actions by late 2026, the 83.5% probability on “No” reflects the current emphasis on diplomacy over renewed large-scale conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$58,612,637Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic agreements have shaped trader expectations against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and subsequent ceasefire, the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum established a framework for ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting select sanctions, and pursuing a final nuclear accord within an extendable 60-day window. Ongoing technical talks, mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, and commitments to economic reconstruction have sustained de-escalation despite July incidents involving shipping attacks and resumed exchanges. With active negotiations addressing enrichment limits and regional security, and no verified plans for ground operations or regime-change actions by late 2026, the 83.5% probability on “No” reflects the current emphasis on diplomacy over renewed large-scale conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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