US-Iran tensions persist after February 2026 airstrikes and a subsequent ceasefire, with the United States relying on naval blockades, targeted strikes, and diplomatic pressure through mediators like Pakistan and Oman rather than committing ground forces. President Trump has repeatedly signaled openness to further limited military action if nuclear talks stall but has emphasized negotiations over occupation, echoing Pentagon preferences for special operations and air-naval dominance instead of a full-scale invasion to control territory. Stalled proposals, regime inflexibility under IRGC influence, and public skepticism over another Middle East ground campaign have reinforced trader expectations that no offensive to seize Iranian soil will occur by the end of 2026, though renewed escalation remains possible if diplomacy collapses before year-end deadlines.