Recent model releases in mid-August 2026 have tightened the race for second place on LMSYS Arena's style-controlled leaderboard, which adjusts rankings for response length and formatting to emphasize substance over verbose output. Anthropic's Claude variants continue to hold the top spot across most quality indices, leaving Meta's Muse Spark 1.2, Google's Gemini 3.7 Flash coding gains, OpenAI's GPT-5.6 iterations, and xAI's Grok 4.6 as the primary contenders for #2 by September's end. Trader consensus at near-even odds reflects rapid iteration cycles, with agentic benchmarks and developer adoption serving as key swing factors ahead of further updates expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMeta 49%
Google 28%
Alibaba 13.1%
OpenAI 11%
$32,434 Vol.
$32,434 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
49%
34%
Alibaba
10%
OpenAI
11%
Anthropic
10%
Xiaomi
5%
StepFun
3%
SpaceXAI
2%
Z.ai
2%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meta 49%
Google 28%
Alibaba 13.1%
OpenAI 11%
$32,434 Vol.
$32,434 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$4,894 Vol.
49%
$4,578 Vol.
34%
Alibaba
$4,024 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$7,611 Vol.
11%
Anthropic
$928 Vol.
10%
Xiaomi
$575 Vol.
5%
StepFun
$649 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$565 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$618 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$1,141 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$657 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$686 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$833 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$541 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$563 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$594 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$575 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$721 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$725 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$494 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$460 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases in mid-August 2026 have tightened the race for second place on LMSYS Arena's style-controlled leaderboard, which adjusts rankings for response length and formatting to emphasize substance over verbose output. Anthropic's Claude variants continue to hold the top spot across most quality indices, leaving Meta's Muse Spark 1.2, Google's Gemini 3.7 Flash coding gains, OpenAI's GPT-5.6 iterations, and xAI's Grok 4.6 as the primary contenders for #2 by September's end. Trader consensus at near-even odds reflects rapid iteration cycles, with agentic benchmarks and developer adoption serving as key swing factors ahead of further updates expected before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$32,434End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases in mid-August 2026 have tightened the race for second place on LMSYS Arena's style-controlled leaderboard, which adjusts rankings for response length and formatting to emphasize substance over verbose output. Anthropic's Claude variants continue to hold the top spot across most quality indices, leaving Meta's Muse Spark 1.2, Google's Gemini 3.7 Flash coding gains, OpenAI's GPT-5.6 iterations, and xAI's Grok 4.6 as the primary contenders for #2 by September's end. Trader consensus at near-even odds reflects rapid iteration cycles, with agentic benchmarks and developer adoption serving as key swing factors ahead of further updates expected before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$32,434End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases in mid-August 2026 have tightened the race for second place on LMSYS Arena's style-controlled leaderboard, which adjusts rankings for response length and formatting to emphasize substance over verbose output. Anthropic's Claude variants continue to hold the top spot across most quality indices, leaving Meta's Muse Spark 1.2, Google's Gemini 3.7 Flash coding gains, OpenAI's GPT-5.6 iterations, and xAI's Grok 4.6 as the primary contenders for #2 by September's end. Trader consensus at near-even odds reflects rapid iteration cycles, with agentic benchmarks and developer adoption serving as key swing factors ahead of further updates expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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