Recent breakthroughs, including OpenAI and DeepMind models reaching gold-medal scores of 35/42 on the 2025 IMO problems and reports of perfect 42/42 benchmark results for 2026 problems by systems like Claude Opus 5 and a Chinese model, have accelerated AI reasoning capabilities in large language models. However, traders assign 74.5% probability to "No" because these achievements remain unofficial demonstrations rather than verified performance in the actual July 2026 contest under official time limits, scoring, and entry rules. Persistent gaps between benchmarks and real-world competition standards, combined with the absence of confirmed official participation or IMO recognition for any AI entrant by late August 2026, underpin the current market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated15% chance
$10,014 Vol.
$10,014 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
15% chance
$10,014 Vol.
$10,014 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent breakthroughs, including OpenAI and DeepMind models reaching gold-medal scores of 35/42 on the 2025 IMO problems and reports of perfect 42/42 benchmark results for 2026 problems by systems like Claude Opus 5 and a Chinese model, have accelerated AI reasoning capabilities in large language models. However, traders assign 74.5% probability to "No" because these achievements remain unofficial demonstrations rather than verified performance in the actual July 2026 contest under official time limits, scoring, and entry rules. Persistent gaps between benchmarks and real-world competition standards, combined with the absence of confirmed official participation or IMO recognition for any AI entrant by late August 2026, underpin the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$10,014End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent breakthroughs, including OpenAI and DeepMind models reaching gold-medal scores of 35/42 on the 2025 IMO problems and reports of perfect 42/42 benchmark results for 2026 problems by systems like Claude Opus 5 and a Chinese model, have accelerated AI reasoning capabilities in large language models. However, traders assign 74.5% probability to "No" because these achievements remain unofficial demonstrations rather than verified performance in the actual July 2026 contest under official time limits, scoring, and entry rules. Persistent gaps between benchmarks and real-world competition standards, combined with the absence of confirmed official participation or IMO recognition for any AI entrant by late August 2026, underpin the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Volume
$10,014End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent breakthroughs, including OpenAI and DeepMind models reaching gold-medal scores of 35/42 on the 2025 IMO problems and reports of perfect 42/42 benchmark results for 2026 problems by systems like Claude Opus 5 and a Chinese model, have accelerated AI reasoning capabilities in large language models. However, traders assign 74.5% probability to "No" because these achievements remain unofficial demonstrations rather than verified performance in the actual July 2026 contest under official time limits, scoring, and entry rules. Persistent gaps between benchmarks and real-world competition standards, combined with the absence of confirmed official participation or IMO recognition for any AI entrant by late August 2026, underpin the current market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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