Market-implied odds currently assign a 58.5% probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting, reflecting trader expectations that the central bank will likely deliver a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at its June 15–16 gathering following the April 27–28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75% on a 6–3 vote. Three board members dissented in favor of an immediate increase, prompting the BoJ to lift its fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8% from 1.9% while trimming growth projections to 0.5%, amid upside risks from energy prices linked to Middle East tensions and persistent yen weakness. With June now viewed as the probable next tightening step, July pricing tilts toward a pause unless incoming May inflation data or yen moves alter the path, underscoring how the latest hawkish hold has compressed the chance of back-to-back hikes within a single quarter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 59%
25 bps increase 32%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
40%
50+ bps increase
5%
No change 59%
25 bps increase 32%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$447 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$307 Vol.
1%
No change
$20 Vol.
59%
25 bps increase
$86 Vol.
40%
50+ bps increase
$61 Vol.
5%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds currently assign a 58.5% probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting, reflecting trader expectations that the central bank will likely deliver a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at its June 15–16 gathering following the April 27–28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75% on a 6–3 vote. Three board members dissented in favor of an immediate increase, prompting the BoJ to lift its fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8% from 1.9% while trimming growth projections to 0.5%, amid upside risks from energy prices linked to Middle East tensions and persistent yen weakness. With June now viewed as the probable next tightening step, July pricing tilts toward a pause unless incoming May inflation data or yen moves alter the path, underscoring how the latest hawkish hold has compressed the chance of back-to-back hikes within a single quarter.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$921End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds currently assign a 58.5% probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting, reflecting trader expectations that the central bank will likely deliver a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at its June 15–16 gathering following the April 27–28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75% on a 6–3 vote. Three board members dissented in favor of an immediate increase, prompting the BoJ to lift its fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8% from 1.9% while trimming growth projections to 0.5%, amid upside risks from energy prices linked to Middle East tensions and persistent yen weakness. With June now viewed as the probable next tightening step, July pricing tilts toward a pause unless incoming May inflation data or yen moves alter the path, underscoring how the latest hawkish hold has compressed the chance of back-to-back hikes within a single quarter.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$921End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds currently assign a 58.5% probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30–31 meeting, reflecting trader expectations that the central bank will likely deliver a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at its June 15–16 gathering following the April 27–28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75% on a 6–3 vote. Three board members dissented in favor of an immediate increase, prompting the BoJ to lift its fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8% from 1.9% while trimming growth projections to 0.5%, amid upside risks from energy prices linked to Middle East tensions and persistent yen weakness. With June now viewed as the probable next tightening step, July pricing tilts toward a pause unless incoming May inflation data or yen moves alter the path, underscoring how the latest hawkish hold has compressed the chance of back-to-back hikes within a single quarter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions