Recent high-frequency indicators and the Q2 2026 GDP print of 0.5% QoQ have shifted trader focus toward subdued Q3 momentum, with XP now forecasting flat sequential growth after earlier projections of 0.3%. Restrictive monetary policy, with the Selic at 13.75% following five 25-basis-point cuts, continues to weigh on interest-sensitive domestic demand, while earlier fiscal support shows signs of fading. Market-implied odds clustering around 0.0–0.2% or mild contraction reflect analyst consensus for 2026 full-year growth trimmed to 1.7–1.8%, amid gradual labor-market softening and external risks. Q3 national accounts, due in December, remain the key resolution catalyst.