Recent softness in China’s domestic demand, including subdued retail sales and fixed-asset investment through August, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth near the 4.3-4.6% band at 36% implied probability. Resilient industrial output and export momentum, supported by global technology demand, have offset some weakness, keeping the adjacent 4.0-4.3% outcome at 29% and reflecting a closely balanced market view. Goldman Sachs and other forecasters recently trimmed full-year projections to 4.5% and Q3 estimates to 4.4%, citing persistent property-sector drag and delayed policy effects. Incremental fiscal and monetary support measures remain the key swing factor ahead of the October GDP release, with any acceleration in bond issuance or targeted easing likely to influence final positioning within the 4.0-4.9% range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.3-4.6% 36%
4.0-4.3% 28.7%
4.6-4.9% 20%
3.7-4.0% 7.6%
$45,777 Vol.
$45,777 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
1%
3.7-4.0%
8%
4.0-4.3%
29%
4.3-4.6%
36%
4.6-4.9%
20%
4.9-5.2%
1%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 36%
4.0-4.3% 28.7%
4.6-4.9% 20%
3.7-4.0% 7.6%
$45,777 Vol.
$45,777 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
$1,624 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$929 Vol.
1%
3.7-4.0%
$2,348 Vol.
8%
4.0-4.3%
$5,198 Vol.
29%
4.3-4.6%
$16,906 Vol.
36%
4.6-4.9%
$11,043 Vol.
20%
4.9-5.2%
$4,240 Vol.
1%
5.2-5.5%
$1,886 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,643 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent softness in China’s domestic demand, including subdued retail sales and fixed-asset investment through August, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth near the 4.3-4.6% band at 36% implied probability. Resilient industrial output and export momentum, supported by global technology demand, have offset some weakness, keeping the adjacent 4.0-4.3% outcome at 29% and reflecting a closely balanced market view. Goldman Sachs and other forecasters recently trimmed full-year projections to 4.5% and Q3 estimates to 4.4%, citing persistent property-sector drag and delayed policy effects. Incremental fiscal and monetary support measures remain the key swing factor ahead of the October GDP release, with any acceleration in bond issuance or targeted easing likely to influence final positioning within the 4.0-4.9% range.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$45,777End Date
Oct 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent softness in China’s domestic demand, including subdued retail sales and fixed-asset investment through August, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth near the 4.3-4.6% band at 36% implied probability. Resilient industrial output and export momentum, supported by global technology demand, have offset some weakness, keeping the adjacent 4.0-4.3% outcome at 29% and reflecting a closely balanced market view. Goldman Sachs and other forecasters recently trimmed full-year projections to 4.5% and Q3 estimates to 4.4%, citing persistent property-sector drag and delayed policy effects. Incremental fiscal and monetary support measures remain the key swing factor ahead of the October GDP release, with any acceleration in bond issuance or targeted easing likely to influence final positioning within the 4.0-4.9% range.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$45,777End Date
Oct 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softness in China’s domestic demand, including subdued retail sales and fixed-asset investment through August, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth near the 4.3-4.6% band at 36% implied probability. Resilient industrial output and export momentum, supported by global technology demand, have offset some weakness, keeping the adjacent 4.0-4.3% outcome at 29% and reflecting a closely balanced market view. Goldman Sachs and other forecasters recently trimmed full-year projections to 4.5% and Q3 estimates to 4.4%, citing persistent property-sector drag and delayed policy effects. Incremental fiscal and monetary support measures remain the key swing factor ahead of the October GDP release, with any acceleration in bond issuance or targeted easing likely to influence final positioning within the 4.0-4.9% range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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