Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests rated toss-ups by forecasters including RCP and Cook, with margins under three points in Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio specials. These states feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents alongside strong challengers, producing tight head-to-head numbers that position them ahead in the market. Candidate matchups, late undecided voters, turnout differentials in battleground areas, and any national shifts before November 3 remain the main variables that could narrow one race further than the others or consolidate trader views on a single outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 15%
Iowa 14.3%
Ohio (Special) 11.2%
Michigan 10.7%
$46,139 Vol.
$46,139 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Texas
15%
Iowa
14%
Ohio (Special)
11%
Michigan
11%
Alaska
10%
Maine
9%
Nebraska
8%
Florida (Special)
4%
New Hampshire
3%
Montana
2%
Virginia
2%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
2%
North Carolina
1%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 15%
Iowa 14.3%
Ohio (Special) 11.2%
Michigan 10.7%
$46,139 Vol.
$46,139 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Texas
$2,375 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$3,434 Vol.
14%
Ohio (Special)
$9,206 Vol.
11%
Michigan
$3,725 Vol.
11%
Alaska
$8,468 Vol.
10%
Maine
$2,149 Vol.
9%
Nebraska
$3,609 Vol.
8%
Florida (Special)
$410 Vol.
4%
New Hampshire
$806 Vol.
3%
Montana
$1,653 Vol.
2%
Virginia
$5,076 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$1,557 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,569 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$1,117 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests rated toss-ups by forecasters including RCP and Cook, with margins under three points in Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio specials. These states feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents alongside strong challengers, producing tight head-to-head numbers that position them ahead in the market. Candidate matchups, late undecided voters, turnout differentials in battleground areas, and any national shifts before November 3 remain the main variables that could narrow one race further than the others or consolidate trader views on a single outcome.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$46,139End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests rated toss-ups by forecasters including RCP and Cook, with margins under three points in Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio specials. These states feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents alongside strong challengers, producing tight head-to-head numbers that position them ahead in the market. Candidate matchups, late undecided voters, turnout differentials in battleground areas, and any national shifts before November 3 remain the main variables that could narrow one race further than the others or consolidate trader views on a single outcome.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,139End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests rated toss-ups by forecasters including RCP and Cook, with margins under three points in Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio specials. These states feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents alongside strong challengers, producing tight head-to-head numbers that position them ahead in the market. Candidate matchups, late undecided voters, turnout differentials in battleground areas, and any national shifts before November 3 remain the main variables that could narrow one race further than the others or consolidate trader views on a single outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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