Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 120-159 tweets for Elon Musk from May 15-22, with 120-139 (18.5% implied probability), 140-159 (16.5%), and 100-119 (14.5%) in a tight contest reflecting his recent mid-teens daily pace—17 posts per day last week (105 total May 5-12) and a 23/day clip May 11-13. The competitive dynamics hinge on his confirmed Air Force One trip to Beijing with President Trump, which could suppress volume during high-stakes meetings or ignite spikes via real-time cultural commentary on geopolitics. Post-DOGE role trends favor moderation below historical peaks, but SpaceX Falcon 9 launches slated for May 15 and 18 remain key swing factors for viral engagement surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated120-139 19%
140-159 17%
100-119 15%
160-179 11%
NEW
$505,334 Vol.
NEW
$505,334 Vol.
May 22, 2026
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
1%
60-79
3%
80-99
10%
100-119
15%
120-139
19%
140-159
17%
160-179
11%
180-199
9%
200-219
7%
220-239
4%
240-259
3%
260-279
2%
280-299
1%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
120-139 19%
140-159 17%
100-119 15%
160-179 11%
NEW
$505,334 Vol.
NEW
$505,334 Vol.
May 22, 2026
<20
$78,049 Vol.
<1%
20-39
$76,692 Vol.
<1%
40-59
$23,265 Vol.
1%
60-79
$22,168 Vol.
3%
80-99
$9,546 Vol.
10%
100-119
$11,787 Vol.
15%
120-139
$8,303 Vol.
19%
140-159
$7,794 Vol.
17%
160-179
$5,682 Vol.
11%
180-199
$7,679 Vol.
9%
200-219
$8,716 Vol.
7%
220-239
$6,476 Vol.
4%
240-259
$5,036 Vol.
3%
260-279
$5,381 Vol.
2%
280-299
$5,013 Vol.
1%
300-319
$5,451 Vol.
1%
320-339
$6,052 Vol.
1%
340-359
$5,216 Vol.
1%
360-379
$3,973 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$3,438 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$6,276 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$4,194 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$11,430 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$25,739 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$50,128 Vol.
<1%
500+
$103,450 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 120-159 tweets for Elon Musk from May 15-22, with 120-139 (18.5% implied probability), 140-159 (16.5%), and 100-119 (14.5%) in a tight contest reflecting his recent mid-teens daily pace—17 posts per day last week (105 total May 5-12) and a 23/day clip May 11-13. The competitive dynamics hinge on his confirmed Air Force One trip to Beijing with President Trump, which could suppress volume during high-stakes meetings or ignite spikes via real-time cultural commentary on geopolitics. Post-DOGE role trends favor moderation below historical peaks, but SpaceX Falcon 9 launches slated for May 15 and 18 remain key swing factors for viral engagement surges.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$505,334End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 120-159 tweets for Elon Musk from May 15-22, with 120-139 (18.5% implied probability), 140-159 (16.5%), and 100-119 (14.5%) in a tight contest reflecting his recent mid-teens daily pace—17 posts per day last week (105 total May 5-12) and a 23/day clip May 11-13. The competitive dynamics hinge on his confirmed Air Force One trip to Beijing with President Trump, which could suppress volume during high-stakes meetings or ignite spikes via real-time cultural commentary on geopolitics. Post-DOGE role trends favor moderation below historical peaks, but SpaceX Falcon 9 launches slated for May 15 and 18 remain key swing factors for viral engagement surges.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$505,334End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 120-159 tweets for Elon Musk from May 15-22, with 120-139 (18.5% implied probability), 140-159 (16.5%), and 100-119 (14.5%) in a tight contest reflecting his recent mid-teens daily pace—17 posts per day last week (105 total May 5-12) and a 23/day clip May 11-13. The competitive dynamics hinge on his confirmed Air Force One trip to Beijing with President Trump, which could suppress volume during high-stakes meetings or ignite spikes via real-time cultural commentary on geopolitics. Post-DOGE role trends favor moderation below historical peaks, but SpaceX Falcon 9 launches slated for May 15 and 18 remain key swing factors for viral engagement surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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