Recent upgrades to 2026 German GDP forecasts by institutes including Kiel, IMK, and IW—to 1.3% from prior estimates around 0.6%—reflect stronger-than-expected H1 momentum driven by exports and fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure. Trader consensus on Q3 2026 growth remains closely split between the 1.0-1.2% and 1.3%+ bins amid temporary headwinds, including low Rhine water levels expected to trim industrial output and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions weighing on consumption. Bundesbank and Kiel projections flag only modest 0.1% quarterly expansion in Q3 before a pickup later in the year, while improving business sentiment and prior data revisions support resilience. Q3 figures are due in late October, with inflation near 2.7% and labor market stability as key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.3%+ 33%
1.0-1.2% 31%
0.7-0.9% 25%
≤0.0% 4.0%
$50,995 Vol.
$50,995 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
≤0.0%
4%
0.1-0.3%
<1%
0.4-0.6%
2%
0.7-0.9%
24%
1.0-1.2%
33%
1.3%+
33%
1.3%+ 33%
1.0-1.2% 31%
0.7-0.9% 25%
≤0.0% 4.0%
$50,995 Vol.
$50,995 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
≤0.0%
$2,285 Vol.
4%
0.1-0.3%
$2,409 Vol.
<1%
0.4-0.6%
$1,466 Vol.
2%
0.7-0.9%
$9,057 Vol.
24%
1.0-1.2%
$25,609 Vol.
33%
1.3%+
$10,168 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upgrades to 2026 German GDP forecasts by institutes including Kiel, IMK, and IW—to 1.3% from prior estimates around 0.6%—reflect stronger-than-expected H1 momentum driven by exports and fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure. Trader consensus on Q3 2026 growth remains closely split between the 1.0-1.2% and 1.3%+ bins amid temporary headwinds, including low Rhine water levels expected to trim industrial output and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions weighing on consumption. Bundesbank and Kiel projections flag only modest 0.1% quarterly expansion in Q3 before a pickup later in the year, while improving business sentiment and prior data revisions support resilience. Q3 figures are due in late October, with inflation near 2.7% and labor market stability as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volume
$50,995End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upgrades to 2026 German GDP forecasts by institutes including Kiel, IMK, and IW—to 1.3% from prior estimates around 0.6%—reflect stronger-than-expected H1 momentum driven by exports and fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure. Trader consensus on Q3 2026 growth remains closely split between the 1.0-1.2% and 1.3%+ bins amid temporary headwinds, including low Rhine water levels expected to trim industrial output and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions weighing on consumption. Bundesbank and Kiel projections flag only modest 0.1% quarterly expansion in Q3 before a pickup later in the year, while improving business sentiment and prior data revisions support resilience. Q3 figures are due in late October, with inflation near 2.7% and labor market stability as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$50,995End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent upgrades to 2026 German GDP forecasts by institutes including Kiel, IMK, and IW—to 1.3% from prior estimates around 0.6%—reflect stronger-than-expected H1 momentum driven by exports and fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure. Trader consensus on Q3 2026 growth remains closely split between the 1.0-1.2% and 1.3%+ bins amid temporary headwinds, including low Rhine water levels expected to trim industrial output and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions weighing on consumption. Bundesbank and Kiel projections flag only modest 0.1% quarterly expansion in Q3 before a pickup later in the year, while improving business sentiment and prior data revisions support resilience. Q3 figures are due in late October, with inflation near 2.7% and labor market stability as key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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