Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on July 16?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 16?
18°C 34%
19°C 31%
17°C 16%
20°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Jul 16, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
3%
16°C
6%
17°C
16%
18°C
34%
19°C
31%
20°C
15%
21°C
5%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 34%
19°C 31%
17°C 16%
20°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Jul 16, 2026
14°C or below
$140 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$80 Vol.
3%
16°C
$91 Vol.
6%
17°C
$311 Vol.
16%
18°C
$225 Vol.
34%
19°C
$647 Vol.
31%
20°C
$364 Vol.
15%
21°C
$353 Vol.
5%
22°C
$51 Vol.
1%
23°C
$552 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$337 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$3,123End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,123End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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