Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private providers indicate a hot, humid air mass with southerly flow will support afternoon highs near 98–100°F in Dallas on September 10, driving the 47.5% market-implied probability for 98–99°F and 22.5% for 100–101°F. Recent days have featured 99–102°F readings under mostly clear skies and heat indices above 105°F, establishing a strong warm baseline above the 91°F climatological average. A 30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms introduces modest cooling uncertainty that caps upside odds for 102°F or higher at just 4%, while limited model spread keeps lower bins (96–97°F) at 19%. Updated guidance ahead of the event will refine these probabilities as steering patterns and convective timing clarify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 10?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 10?
98-99°F 48%
100-101°F 22%
96-97°F 19%
94-95°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
7%
96-97°F
19%
98-99°F
48%
100-101°F
22%
102-103°F
4%
104-105°F
2%
106-107°F
1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 48%
100-101°F 22%
96-97°F 19%
94-95°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
89°F or below
$863 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$230 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$226 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$1,150 Vol.
7%
96-97°F
$467 Vol.
19%
98-99°F
$1,454 Vol.
48%
100-101°F
$421 Vol.
22%
102-103°F
$429 Vol.
4%
104-105°F
$107 Vol.
2%
106-107°F
$264 Vol.
1%
108°F or higher
$407 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private providers indicate a hot, humid air mass with southerly flow will support afternoon highs near 98–100°F in Dallas on September 10, driving the 47.5% market-implied probability for 98–99°F and 22.5% for 100–101°F. Recent days have featured 99–102°F readings under mostly clear skies and heat indices above 105°F, establishing a strong warm baseline above the 91°F climatological average. A 30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms introduces modest cooling uncertainty that caps upside odds for 102°F or higher at just 4%, while limited model spread keeps lower bins (96–97°F) at 19%. Updated guidance ahead of the event will refine these probabilities as steering patterns and convective timing clarify.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,017End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private providers indicate a hot, humid air mass with southerly flow will support afternoon highs near 98–100°F in Dallas on September 10, driving the 47.5% market-implied probability for 98–99°F and 22.5% for 100–101°F. Recent days have featured 99–102°F readings under mostly clear skies and heat indices above 105°F, establishing a strong warm baseline above the 91°F climatological average. A 30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms introduces modest cooling uncertainty that caps upside odds for 102°F or higher at just 4%, while limited model spread keeps lower bins (96–97°F) at 19%. Updated guidance ahead of the event will refine these probabilities as steering patterns and convective timing clarify.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,017End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private providers indicate a hot, humid air mass with southerly flow will support afternoon highs near 98–100°F in Dallas on September 10, driving the 47.5% market-implied probability for 98–99°F and 22.5% for 100–101°F. Recent days have featured 99–102°F readings under mostly clear skies and heat indices above 105°F, establishing a strong warm baseline above the 91°F climatological average. A 30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms introduces modest cooling uncertainty that caps upside odds for 102°F or higher at just 4%, while limited model spread keeps lower bins (96–97°F) at 19%. Updated guidance ahead of the event will refine these probabilities as steering patterns and convective timing clarify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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