**Forecast model spread for Moscow's June 18 maximum centers on 15–17°C amid variable Atlantic frontal influences and cloud cover uncertainty.** Current numerical weather prediction ensembles show a narrow range of outcomes driven by the timing and strength of a weak low-pressure system and associated moisture, which could enhance cloudiness and limit daytime heating or allow partial clearing for slightly higher readings. Official guidance from sources like the Met Office and regional models currently projects highs near 17–18°C, while other guidance leans cooler near 13–15°C depending on precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing. This genuine uncertainty—typical for mid-June transitional patterns in the Moscow region, where climatological averages sit around 20–22°C but daily variability often exceeds 5°C—explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly among 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and observed upstream conditions, with new high-resolution updates expected to narrow the range before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on June 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on June 18?
16°C 32%
17°C 25%
15°C 24%
14°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 jun 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
4%
14°C
10%
15°C
24%
16°C
32%
17°C
25%
18°C
8%
19°C
4%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
16°C 32%
17°C 25%
15°C 24%
14°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 jun 2026
12°C or below
$33 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$181 Vol.
4%
14°C
$182 Vol.
10%
15°C
$172 Vol.
24%
16°C
$172 Vol.
32%
17°C
$428 Vol.
25%
18°C
$599 Vol.
8%
19°C
$258 Vol.
4%
20°C
$483 Vol.
1%
21°C
$98 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model spread for Moscow's June 18 maximum centers on 15–17°C amid variable Atlantic frontal influences and cloud cover uncertainty.**
Current numerical weather prediction ensembles show a narrow range of outcomes driven by the timing and strength of a weak low-pressure system and associated moisture, which could enhance cloudiness and limit daytime heating or allow partial clearing for slightly higher readings. Official guidance from sources like the Met Office and regional models currently projects highs near 17–18°C, while other guidance leans cooler near 13–15°C depending on precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing. This genuine uncertainty—typical for mid-June transitional patterns in the Moscow region, where climatological averages sit around 20–22°C but daily variability often exceeds 5°C—explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly among 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and observed upstream conditions, with new high-resolution updates expected to narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 16, 2026, 1:15 AM ET
Volumen
$2,622Fecha de finalización
18 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 16, 2026, 1:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model spread for Moscow's June 18 maximum centers on 15–17°C amid variable Atlantic frontal influences and cloud cover uncertainty.**
Current numerical weather prediction ensembles show a narrow range of outcomes driven by the timing and strength of a weak low-pressure system and associated moisture, which could enhance cloudiness and limit daytime heating or allow partial clearing for slightly higher readings. Official guidance from sources like the Met Office and regional models currently projects highs near 17–18°C, while other guidance leans cooler near 13–15°C depending on precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing. This genuine uncertainty—typical for mid-June transitional patterns in the Moscow region, where climatological averages sit around 20–22°C but daily variability often exceeds 5°C—explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly among 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and observed upstream conditions, with new high-resolution updates expected to narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,622Fecha de finalización
18 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 16, 2026, 1:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast model spread for Moscow's June 18 maximum centers on 15–17°C amid variable Atlantic frontal influences and cloud cover uncertainty.** Current numerical weather prediction ensembles show a narrow range of outcomes driven by the timing and strength of a weak low-pressure system and associated moisture, which could enhance cloudiness and limit daytime heating or allow partial clearing for slightly higher readings. Official guidance from sources like the Met Office and regional models currently projects highs near 17–18°C, while other guidance leans cooler near 13–15°C depending on precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing. This genuine uncertainty—typical for mid-June transitional patterns in the Moscow region, where climatological averages sit around 20–22°C but daily variability often exceeds 5°C—explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly among 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and observed upstream conditions, with new high-resolution updates expected to narrow the range before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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