Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a warm air mass over northern France on August 19, with afternoon highs near or above 29°C in central Paris districts before cooler maritime air and showers arrive. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, when urban heat island effects and high solar insolation routinely push maxima 2–4°C above rural baselines. Traders have converged on the 29°C-or-higher outcome at full market-implied probability because official guidance shows no credible path to a sub-29°C peak under current synoptic conditions. A sharp, unforecasted frontal passage or denser cloud cover could still cap temperatures below threshold, though model consensus places low probability on that outcome before evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 19?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 19?
29°C or higher 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$166,021 Vol.
$166,021 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
Yes
29°C or higher 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$166,021 Vol.
$166,021 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
19°C or below
$1,428 Vol.
No
20°C
$7,479 Vol.
No
21°C
$14,005 Vol.
No
22°C
$14,938 Vol.
No
23°C
$19,351 Vol.
No
24°C
$11,623 Vol.
No
25°C
$9,754 Vol.
No
26°C
$11,327 Vol.
No
27°C
$19,092 Vol.
No
28°C
$25,929 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$31,095 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a warm air mass over northern France on August 19, with afternoon highs near or above 29°C in central Paris districts before cooler maritime air and showers arrive. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, when urban heat island effects and high solar insolation routinely push maxima 2–4°C above rural baselines. Traders have converged on the 29°C-or-higher outcome at full market-implied probability because official guidance shows no credible path to a sub-29°C peak under current synoptic conditions. A sharp, unforecasted frontal passage or denser cloud cover could still cap temperatures below threshold, though model consensus places low probability on that outcome before evening.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$166,021End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a warm air mass over northern France on August 19, with afternoon highs near or above 29°C in central Paris districts before cooler maritime air and showers arrive. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, when urban heat island effects and high solar insolation routinely push maxima 2–4°C above rural baselines. Traders have converged on the 29°C-or-higher outcome at full market-implied probability because official guidance shows no credible path to a sub-29°C peak under current synoptic conditions. A sharp, unforecasted frontal passage or denser cloud cover could still cap temperatures below threshold, though model consensus places low probability on that outcome before evening.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$166,021End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a warm air mass over northern France on August 19, with afternoon highs near or above 29°C in central Paris districts before cooler maritime air and showers arrive. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, when urban heat island effects and high solar insolation routinely push maxima 2–4°C above rural baselines. Traders have converged on the 29°C-or-higher outcome at full market-implied probability because official guidance shows no credible path to a sub-29°C peak under current synoptic conditions. A sharp, unforecasted frontal passage or denser cloud cover could still cap temperatures below threshold, though model consensus places low probability on that outcome before evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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