Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Warsaw highs clustering near 22–23°C on July 12, with trader consensus reflected in the tight spread among 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C-or-higher outcomes. Differentiating factors include timing of any Atlantic frontal passage, duration of cloud cover that limits surface insolation, and precipitation-driven evaporative cooling, all of which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Overcast or showery conditions in the latest guidance suppress peak heating relative to clearer scenarios, while modest warm advection and boundary-layer mixing support values near the seasonal average of 24°C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could reprice these closely matched contracts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 12?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 12?
23°C or higher 35%
22°C 30%
21°C 28%
20°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 12, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
9%
21°C
28%
22°C
30%
23°C or higher
35%
23°C or higher 35%
22°C 30%
21°C 28%
20°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 12, 2026
13°C or below
$286 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$373 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$653 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$247 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$136 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$212 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$96 Vol.
2%
20°C
$70 Vol.
9%
21°C
$111 Vol.
28%
22°C
$326 Vol.
30%
23°C or higher
$255 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Warsaw highs clustering near 22–23°C on July 12, with trader consensus reflected in the tight spread among 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C-or-higher outcomes. Differentiating factors include timing of any Atlantic frontal passage, duration of cloud cover that limits surface insolation, and precipitation-driven evaporative cooling, all of which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Overcast or showery conditions in the latest guidance suppress peak heating relative to clearer scenarios, while modest warm advection and boundary-layer mixing support values near the seasonal average of 24°C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could reprice these closely matched contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,763End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Warsaw highs clustering near 22–23°C on July 12, with trader consensus reflected in the tight spread among 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C-or-higher outcomes. Differentiating factors include timing of any Atlantic frontal passage, duration of cloud cover that limits surface insolation, and precipitation-driven evaporative cooling, all of which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Overcast or showery conditions in the latest guidance suppress peak heating relative to clearer scenarios, while modest warm advection and boundary-layer mixing support values near the seasonal average of 24°C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could reprice these closely matched contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,763End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Warsaw highs clustering near 22–23°C on July 12, with trader consensus reflected in the tight spread among 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C-or-higher outcomes. Differentiating factors include timing of any Atlantic frontal passage, duration of cloud cover that limits surface insolation, and precipitation-driven evaporative cooling, all of which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Overcast or showery conditions in the latest guidance suppress peak heating relative to clearer scenarios, while modest warm advection and boundary-layer mixing support values near the seasonal average of 24°C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could reprice these closely matched contracts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions