How low will Lake Mead drop?

Below 1,028 ft 64%

Above 1,038 ft 14%

1,028–1,033 ft 6.5%

1,033–1,038 ft 5.5%

NEW

Apr 15, 2027

Above 1,038 ft

$1,248 Vol.

14%

1,033–1,038 ft

$269 Vol.

1,028–1,033 ft

$262 Vol.

17%

Below 1,028 ft

$3,642 Vol.

64%

Below 1,028 ft 64%

Above 1,038 ft 14%

1,028–1,033 ft 6.5%

1,033–1,038 ft 5.5%

NEW

Apr 15, 2027

Above 1,038 ft

$1,248 Vol.

14%

1,033–1,038 ft

$269 Vol.

1,028–1,033 ft

$262 Vol.

17%

Below 1,028 ft

$3,642 Vol.

64%

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3). Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

69%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How low will Lake Mead drop?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Below 1,028 ft" at 64%, followed by "1,028–1,033 ft" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How low will Lake Mead drop?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How low will Lake Mead drop?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How low will Lake Mead drop?" is "Below 1,028 ft" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1,028–1,033 ft" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How low will Lake Mead drop?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "How low will Lake Mead drop?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “How low will Lake Mead drop?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "How low will Lake Mead drop?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 64¢ for "Below 1,028 ft" in the "How low will Lake Mead drop?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 64% chance that "Below 1,028 ft" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 64¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 36¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "How low will Lake Mead drop?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 15, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "How low will Lake Mead drop?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "How low will Lake Mead drop?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

How low will Lake Mead drop?

How low will Lake Mead drop?

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