Recent seismic activity, including a magnitude 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, has anchored trader expectations around one or two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes for the August 10–16 window. USGS data show roughly 1–2 such events occur globally each week on average, drawn from annual rates of approximately 140 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes and 15 magnitude 7.0+. With four days remaining and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters reported by monitoring agencies, the market-implied 60.5% probability for exactly one reflects this baseline rate tempered by the early-week occurrence. Additional events would require new tectonic triggering on major subduction or strike-slip zones, an outcome traders currently price at under 40% combined.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
1 61%
2 27%
3 8.7%
4 1.4%
$14,488 Vol.
$14,488 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
1%
1
61%
2
27%
3
9%
4
1%
5
1%
>5
1%
1 61%
2 27%
3 8.7%
4 1.4%
$14,488 Vol.
$14,488 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
$7,720 Vol.
1%
1
$1,956 Vol.
61%
2
$752 Vol.
27%
3
$641 Vol.
9%
4
$574 Vol.
1%
5
$656 Vol.
1%
>5
$2,190 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic activity, including a magnitude 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, has anchored trader expectations around one or two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes for the August 10–16 window. USGS data show roughly 1–2 such events occur globally each week on average, drawn from annual rates of approximately 140 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes and 15 magnitude 7.0+. With four days remaining and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters reported by monitoring agencies, the market-implied 60.5% probability for exactly one reflects this baseline rate tempered by the early-week occurrence. Additional events would require new tectonic triggering on major subduction or strike-slip zones, an outcome traders currently price at under 40% combined.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Volume
$14,488End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic activity, including a magnitude 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, has anchored trader expectations around one or two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes for the August 10–16 window. USGS data show roughly 1–2 such events occur globally each week on average, drawn from annual rates of approximately 140 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes and 15 magnitude 7.0+. With four days remaining and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters reported by monitoring agencies, the market-implied 60.5% probability for exactly one reflects this baseline rate tempered by the early-week occurrence. Additional events would require new tectonic triggering on major subduction or strike-slip zones, an outcome traders currently price at under 40% combined.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$14,488End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent seismic activity, including a magnitude 7.4 event in Colombia on August 10, has anchored trader expectations around one or two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes for the August 10–16 window. USGS data show roughly 1–2 such events occur globally each week on average, drawn from annual rates of approximately 140 magnitude 6.0–6.9 quakes and 15 magnitude 7.0+. With four days remaining and no active aftershock sequences or foreshock clusters reported by monitoring agencies, the market-implied 60.5% probability for exactly one reflects this baseline rate tempered by the early-week occurrence. Additional events would require new tectonic triggering on major subduction or strike-slip zones, an outcome traders currently price at under 40% combined.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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