The closely matched odds around one or two Codex resets in the week of October 5 reflect uncertainty following OpenAI Codex engineering lead Thibault Sottiaux’s October 4 pledge to ship either a broadly relevant improvement or a full global usage-limit reset each day for the next 28 days. The last confirmed global reset occurred on October 2, after a September cadence that included resets on the 26th and 22nd (the latter banked), with typical intervals of roughly five to seven days amid launches, bug fixes, and milestones. Traders weigh the pledge’s reset incentive against the possibility of daily product updates delaying further action, plus the personal rolling five-hour and weekly windows that operate independently of announced global or banked resets. Monitoring @thsottiaux posts for confirmation signals remains the key near-term catalyst, as historical clusters around model releases or service issues can produce multiple events in a single week while quiet periods push counts toward zero.