Starship's market-implied odds center on 5-6 launches reaching space in 2026 because SpaceX has completed only two test flights this year—Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July—both achieving space but highlighting ongoing V3 vehicle refinements and reusability challenges with Raptor engines. Recent progress on booster catch attempts and dummy Starlink deployments signals improving reliability after prior failures, yet FAA licensing timelines, iterative hardware testing, and the shift toward operational cadence from Starbase limit acceleration. Traders see modest H2 2026 growth possible with Flight 14 targeting August orbital milestones, tempered by typical delays in scaling to bi-weekly frequency amid regulatory and technical hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6 56%
<5 32%
7-8 10.4%
9-10 4.5%
$491,937 Vol.
$491,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
32%
5-6
56%
7-8
10%
9-10
5%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 56%
<5 32%
7-8 10.4%
9-10 4.5%
$491,937 Vol.
$491,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$98,690 Vol.
32%
5-6
$113,711 Vol.
56%
7-8
$158,412 Vol.
10%
9-10
$61,351 Vol.
5%
11-12
$8,248 Vol.
3%
13-14
$9,112 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$30,012 Vol.
<1%
>16
$12,401 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Starship's market-implied odds center on 5-6 launches reaching space in 2026 because SpaceX has completed only two test flights this year—Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July—both achieving space but highlighting ongoing V3 vehicle refinements and reusability challenges with Raptor engines. Recent progress on booster catch attempts and dummy Starlink deployments signals improving reliability after prior failures, yet FAA licensing timelines, iterative hardware testing, and the shift toward operational cadence from Starbase limit acceleration. Traders see modest H2 2026 growth possible with Flight 14 targeting August orbital milestones, tempered by typical delays in scaling to bi-weekly frequency amid regulatory and technical hurdles.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$491,937End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Starship's market-implied odds center on 5-6 launches reaching space in 2026 because SpaceX has completed only two test flights this year—Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July—both achieving space but highlighting ongoing V3 vehicle refinements and reusability challenges with Raptor engines. Recent progress on booster catch attempts and dummy Starlink deployments signals improving reliability after prior failures, yet FAA licensing timelines, iterative hardware testing, and the shift toward operational cadence from Starbase limit acceleration. Traders see modest H2 2026 growth possible with Flight 14 targeting August orbital milestones, tempered by typical delays in scaling to bi-weekly frequency amid regulatory and technical hurdles.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$491,937End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Starship's market-implied odds center on 5-6 launches reaching space in 2026 because SpaceX has completed only two test flights this year—Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July—both achieving space but highlighting ongoing V3 vehicle refinements and reusability challenges with Raptor engines. Recent progress on booster catch attempts and dummy Starlink deployments signals improving reliability after prior failures, yet FAA licensing timelines, iterative hardware testing, and the shift toward operational cadence from Starbase limit acceleration. Traders see modest H2 2026 growth possible with Flight 14 targeting August orbital milestones, tempered by typical delays in scaling to bi-weekly frequency amid regulatory and technical hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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