Sustained U.S.-Israeli strikes since mid-2025 have damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, with additional attacks in early 2026 further limiting access and operations. IAEA reports confirm restricted inspections, while Iranian officials state that enriched uranium stockpiles remain buried under rubble with no recovery plans underway. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding includes Iran's reaffirmation against developing nuclear weapons, and U.S. assessments indicate no resumption of enrichment activities. This combination of degraded infrastructure, verification constraints, and ongoing military threats underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a test before 2027. Shifts could still arise from undetected rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, leadership changes, or de-escalation allowing covert weaponization efforts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% chance
$246,340 Vol.
$246,340 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$246,340 Vol.
$246,340 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Sustained U.S.-Israeli strikes since mid-2025 have damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, with additional attacks in early 2026 further limiting access and operations. IAEA reports confirm restricted inspections, while Iranian officials state that enriched uranium stockpiles remain buried under rubble with no recovery plans underway. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding includes Iran's reaffirmation against developing nuclear weapons, and U.S. assessments indicate no resumption of enrichment activities. This combination of degraded infrastructure, verification constraints, and ongoing military threats underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a test before 2027. Shifts could still arise from undetected rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, leadership changes, or de-escalation allowing covert weaponization efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$246,340End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Sustained U.S.-Israeli strikes since mid-2025 have damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, with additional attacks in early 2026 further limiting access and operations. IAEA reports confirm restricted inspections, while Iranian officials state that enriched uranium stockpiles remain buried under rubble with no recovery plans underway. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding includes Iran's reaffirmation against developing nuclear weapons, and U.S. assessments indicate no resumption of enrichment activities. This combination of degraded infrastructure, verification constraints, and ongoing military threats underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a test before 2027. Shifts could still arise from undetected rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, leadership changes, or de-escalation allowing covert weaponization efforts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$246,340End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sustained U.S.-Israeli strikes since mid-2025 have damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, with additional attacks in early 2026 further limiting access and operations. IAEA reports confirm restricted inspections, while Iranian officials state that enriched uranium stockpiles remain buried under rubble with no recovery plans underway. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding includes Iran's reaffirmation against developing nuclear weapons, and U.S. assessments indicate no resumption of enrichment activities. This combination of degraded infrastructure, verification constraints, and ongoing military threats underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a test before 2027. Shifts could still arise from undetected rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, leadership changes, or de-escalation allowing covert weaponization efforts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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