Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including major operations in June 2025 and February 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the estimated timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon to nine to twelve months according to current U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA inspections continue to monitor remaining stockpiles and access restrictions following the attacks, with no verified steps toward weaponization or testing observed. Iran maintains its program serves peaceful purposes and has not conducted a nuclear test, while diplomatic efforts and internal debates focus on rebuilding amid ongoing sanctions and regional tensions. These factors underpin trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains improbable absent major reversals in capabilities or policy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$192,428 Vol.
$192,428 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$192,428 Vol.
$192,428 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including major operations in June 2025 and February 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the estimated timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon to nine to twelve months according to current U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA inspections continue to monitor remaining stockpiles and access restrictions following the attacks, with no verified steps toward weaponization or testing observed. Iran maintains its program serves peaceful purposes and has not conducted a nuclear test, while diplomatic efforts and internal debates focus on rebuilding amid ongoing sanctions and regional tensions. These factors underpin trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains improbable absent major reversals in capabilities or policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$192,428End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including major operations in June 2025 and February 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the estimated timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon to nine to twelve months according to current U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA inspections continue to monitor remaining stockpiles and access restrictions following the attacks, with no verified steps toward weaponization or testing observed. Iran maintains its program serves peaceful purposes and has not conducted a nuclear test, while diplomatic efforts and internal debates focus on rebuilding amid ongoing sanctions and regional tensions. These factors underpin trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains improbable absent major reversals in capabilities or policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$192,428End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including major operations in June 2025 and February 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the estimated timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon to nine to twelve months according to current U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA inspections continue to monitor remaining stockpiles and access restrictions following the attacks, with no verified steps toward weaponization or testing observed. Iran maintains its program serves peaceful purposes and has not conducted a nuclear test, while diplomatic efforts and internal debates focus on rebuilding amid ongoing sanctions and regional tensions. These factors underpin trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains improbable absent major reversals in capabilities or policy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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